UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: EU reset + migration policy = no change to GDP growth The upcoming UK-EU reset may boost the UK’s long-term economic growth rate by something like 0.1%. But the government’s new migration policies may reduce it by something like 0.1%. So what the... 16th May 2025 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA won’t claim victory in inflation fight just yet Although the RBA is almost certain to slash its policy rate by 25bp at its meeting next Tuesday, it will probably remain cautious about commiting to further policy easing. After all, business surveys... 16th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: BoJ will delay further tightening until October The truce reached between China and the US over the weekend is a clear positive for Japan’s economy. Even so, we suspect that weak economic activity coupled with an impending plunge in inflation will... 16th May 2025 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales & PPI (Apr 2025) Despite fears raised by the slump in sentiment, retail sales edged up by 0.1% m/m in April, following a massive 1.7% m/m gain the month before. Admittedly, control group sales fell by 0.2% m/m last... 15th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Mar. 2025) The sharp decline in manufacturing sales volumes in March suggests the earlier boost from US tariff front-running is now reversing. A modest rise in new orders supports our view that the watered-down... 15th May 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Mar. & Q1 2025) The bumper 0.7% q/q rise in GDP in Q1 is unlikely to be repeated as a lot of it was due to a leap in business investment that looks out of whack with the plunge in business confidence and some of it... 15th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Apr. 25) With the labour market going from strength to strength, we’re more convinced than ever that the RBA will be reluctant to cut rates aggressively. Accordingly, we’re sticking to our forecast for a... 15th May 2025 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will only cut twice more this cycle With trimmed mean inflation entering the RBA’s target band for the first time since 2021, the Bank will almost certainly lower interest rates by another 25bp at next week’s meeting. However, amidst... 14th May 2025 · 8 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (May 2025) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Japan’s economy won’t be affected much by global trade tensions. While the Bank of Japan has... 14th May 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q1 2025) The pick-up in wage growth in Q1 won’t prevent the RBA from cutting interest rates next week but it will limit the scope of additional easing thereafter. 14th May 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Apr 2025) The CPI data suggest that core PCE prices rose at a target-consistent rate in April for the second month running, although it is likely to be a different story this month as tariff effects start to... 13th May 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Mar./Apr. 2025) The jobs market weakened further in the face of April’s rise in payroll taxes and the national minimum wage. But with wage growth still stuck in the 5.5-6.0% range and energy prices set to drive up... 13th May 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Focus UK Focus: The UK’s future in Europe We’re resending our analysis of what the UK-EU reset means for the UK economy and, what it means for the UK’s future in Europe, ahead of today’s UK-EU summit in London. While the UK-EU reset will... 12th May 2025 · 25 mins read
Capital Daily Back to the future? Just over a month ago, we ditched our long-held forecast that the S&P 500 would end this year at 7,000, and revised it all the way down to 5,500. While that looks like it might have been a mistake, we... 12th May 2025 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Update Assessing the risks to single-family home construction Fears that single-family housing starts are on the verge of collapse because of the large buildup of new homes for sale are overblown. The accumulation largely reflects smaller private builders... 12th May 2025 · 3 mins read
