Japan Rapid Response Japan Tokyo CPI (July 24) The sharp slowdown in inflation excluding fresh food and energy in Tokyo this month reduces the likelihood that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates next week, though we’re sticking to our... 26th July 2024 · 3 mins read
BoE Watch It’s close, but BoE to keep rates on hold for a little longer While it will be a very close call, the economy’s recent strength and the stickiness of services inflation leads us to think that the Bank of England will wait until its September meeting to cut... 25th July 2024 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Focus We doubt this is the start of a far bigger rotation in US equities We don’t think the recent rotation in US equities sets the stage for something much bigger. In our opinion, another sustained and substantial rotation won’t begin until shortly before the bubble in... 25th July 2024 · 16 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Industrial sentiment worsens in Q2 RICS survey While headline balances saw little movement, digging deeper the Q2 RICS survey shows a reversal of last quarter’s more positive outlook. Indeed, respondents seem more downbeat, with almost half now... 25th July 2024 · 6 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Wage growth on a firm downward trend We expect a softer 170,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in July, alongside a more substantial easing in wage growth. 25th July 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US GDP (Q2 2024) The sharper-than-expected pick-up in second-quarter GDP growth to 2.8% annualised should make the Fed a bit more comfortable about keeping policy unchanged next week, but the recent loosening of... 25th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Sticky services inflation raises upside risks Inflation still looks set to be in line with central banks’ targets next year (see Chart 1), but upside risks have increased outside the US. With the sharp falls in energy and food inflation behind us... 25th July 2024 · 16 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Following a wobbly period around the turn of the year, the economy is on the mend and should gather... 25th July 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Loosening cycle continues, September cut looks likely Alongside its decision to cut interest rates today, the Bank of Canada struck a more dovish tone than in June, supporting our forecast that another cut is coming at the next meeting in September. 24th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs offer some hope of easing services price pressures The latest flash PMIs suggest that while GDP growth probably slowed in Europe at the start of Q3, it continued to recover in Japan. Although the rise in shipping costs has caused manufacturers’ input... 24th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Big-tech results and rotation Today’s sell-off in the US stock market in the wake of a poor reception to yesterday’s results from the first two members of the ‘Magnificent 7’ to report during this earnings season is likely to have... 24th July 2024 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response New Home Sales (Jun. 2024) New home sales were essentially unchanged in June after their 15% slump the month before, not helped by mortgage rates which remained stubbornly high at around 7%. So far in July, borrowing costs have... 24th July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed warming up to a September rate cut With the disinflationary trend broadening out and the unemployment rate rising, recent comments from Fed officials suggest that the FOMC is on track to cut interest rates in September. While the... 24th July 2024 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jul. 2024) July’s composite PMI suggests some of the recent rebound in activity this year may have been due to catch-up growth following the weakness of activity last year and GDP growth is easing towards a more... 24th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank will lift rates to 0.5% by year-end At its upcoming meeting, we expect the Bank of Japan to announce a reduction in its monthly bond purchases to ¥2tn over the next couple of years, with an initial reduction to ¥5tn. And we expect the... 24th July 2024 · 8 mins read
