Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan will still press ahead with another hike We're sending this Japan Economics Weekly one day earlier than usual because our Singapore office is closed on Friday for National Day. Financial markets have calmed following the turmoil earlier this... 8th August 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Jul. 2024) Increasing demand points to stronger price growth Tentative signs from July’s RICS survey add to the growing evidence that demand and prices are starting to pick up. And as lenders start to cut... 8th August 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) At its last policy meeting, the Bank of England still sounded a long way from being assured that inflation and wage growth will continue to ease. As a result, we doubt the recent moves in global... 7th August 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) With the economy now in a position of excess supply, we expect core inflation to continue to fall back to 2% by the middle of next year. With the Bank of Canada putting more emphasis on the downside... 7th August 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Growth upgrade suggests UK no longer such a laggard The news that the economy may now be 2.6% bigger than its Q4 2019 pre-pandemic size, rather than 1.8%, suggests it is in better shape than we previously thought. But with the UK still suffering from... 7th August 2024 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (Jul. 2024) July was a disappointing month for mortgage activity overall, with earlier high borrowing costs causing home purchase applications to slide by 5.4% m/m. All the attention, however, will be on the last... 7th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Financial conditions still loosening in most DMs Market turmoil has not yet led to a tightening of financial conditions in the US and most other advanced economies. That’s because borrowing costs have fallen sharply as investors have grown to expect... 7th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update The financial stability risks from recent market moves Even though it’s difficult to identify what could have broken as a result of the recent rapid market moves, a stronger yen is a bigger threat to the health of Japan’s financial institutions than... 7th August 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Jul. 2024) After three months of stagnation, the bigger-than-expected rise in the Halifax house price index in July provides further evidence that house prices are bouncing back from the slight rise in mortgage... 7th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ to kickstart its easing cycle next week We are in the minority of forecasters who expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hand down a 25bp rate cut at its meeting next week. Moreover, with excess capacity in the economy rising rapidly, we... 7th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q2 2024) Although employment growth in Q2 was stronger than most had anticipated, it didn’t keep the unemployment rate from climbing higher. What’s more, a look under the hood suggests the labour market is in... 7th August 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Assessing the implications of the market turmoil for the UK Although the UK has clearly been caught up in the recent turmoil in global financial markets, we do not think a double-dip recession is on the cards. Nonetheless, the disorderly market reaction, if... 6th August 2024 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) A pullback in buyer demand paired with rising supply has cooled the market, causing house price inflation to ease. However, the recent sharp decline in mortgage rates will offset some of that softness... 6th August 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response International Trade (Jun. 2024) There was little sign of weakening domestic demand in the international trade data for June, with imports rising. Exports rose even more sharply, causing the trade deficit to narrow, although the... 6th August 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Jun. 2024) The strength of oil exports in June suggests that GDP in the second quarter will come in stronger than the 2.1% annualised gain that the flash estimate implied. Coupled with stronger consumer goods... 6th August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Investment recovering, but not without risks While the UK led the recovery in investment activity in Q4 last year, the latest data suggest the US and euro-zone are now also turning a corner. But given concerns over economic growth in all three... 6th August 2024 · 4 mins read
