US Housing Market Update Has the Sun Belt lost its shine? Lower net domestic migration has substituted in for the earlier supply glut as the main factor putting downward pressure on house prices in the Sun Belt’s previously red-hot metros. We doubt the... 19th November 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) While the recent pace of transactions and house price growth is unlikely to be sustained over the coming months, we doubt it will slow by as much as some sentiment indicators suggest. But by crimping... 19th November 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Aug. 2025) Swings in gold trade were once more a key driver of movements in the trade balance in August, resulting in a $18.6bn narrowing in the deficit to $59.6bn. 19th November 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Oct. 2025) The fall in CPI inflation from 3.8% in September to 3.6% in October (CE, consensus and BoE forecasts all 3.6%) is the second softish inflation release in a row and could well prompt the Governor of... 19th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Takaichi unlikely to curb immigration much Concerns that new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will drastically reduce immigration inflows seem overdone. But we suspect that the increase in immigration inflows over the past decade will come to a... 19th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ: One last cut for the road We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to close out its easing cycle with a 25bp cut at its meeting ending on 26th November. Our sense is that the Bank will want to take out a final bit of... 19th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q3 2025) Although wage growth in Australia held steady last quarter, underlying momentum appears to have softened a touch. At the margin, that supports our view that the RBA will resume its easing cycle in H2... 19th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Nov. 2025) October’s housing data were broadly positive, with sales and prices both up on the month. We expect falling starts and a lower path for the Bank’s policy rate than markets are pricing in to drive a... 18th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Subdued global inflation masks regional variation We expect global inflation to hover around 2.5% in the year ahead but there will be significant differences between economies. Goods inflation has a bit further to rise in the US which, coupled with... 18th November 2025 · 18 mins read
US Economics Focus AI boosting US economic growth The AI boom that has been driving the stock market for several years is now clearly evident in economic activity too. In particular, we suspect that AI explains most of the pick-up in ICT sector... 18th November 2025 · 14 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBA Minutes (Nov. 2025) The minutes of the RBA’s November meeting reinforce the notion that the Bank will remain in wait and watch mode in the near term. While we still expect it to cut rates by another 50bp late next year... 18th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Oct. 2025) The modest upside surprise to headline inflation in October was largely due to one-off factors, whereas the smaller average monthly gain in CPI-trim and CPI-median lends some support to our view that... 17th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan GDP (Q3 2025 Preliminary) The fall in GDP last quarter further reduces the chances of a BoJ rate hike in December but we still think that the Bank will resume its tightening cycle at its January meeting. 17th November 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Normal service resumes in Washington We are sending this Weekly again to include the dates and previews of the post-shutdown data releases that have been announced so far With the federal government reopened, the task now is to assess... 14th November 2025 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank committed to current policy rate for now The Summary of Deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s October meeting contained some mixed messages, but ultimately confirmed that the Bank remains committed to the current policy rate of 2.25% for the... 14th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Sep. 2025) The solid rebound in manufacturing sales in September is not as positive for GDP growth as first meets the eye, since inventories of finished products and goods in process both ticked down that month... 14th November 2025 · 2 mins read
