US Housing Market Rapid Response US New Home Sales (Dec. 2024) The 3.6% increase in new home sales in December wraps up a solid year for newbuild demand in an otherwise stagnant housing market, with sales up nearly 3% over 2024 as a whole. We expect new home... 27th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s labour market to remain tight despite rate hikes The experience from other advanced economies is that there’s no hard and fast rule for how long it will take for the labour market to loosen in response to rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. But with... 27th January 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: What have we learned from Trump’s first week? President Donald Trump’s first week back in office kicked off with a bang. He signed around 100 executive orders and strongly signalled that there were more policy changes to come. The week’s... 24th January 2025 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Tariff uncertainty casts clouds over recent upturn Donald Trump's first week back in office brought renewed threats of a 25% tariff on imports from Canada, with a potential imposition date of February 1st also thrown in. Such uncertainty will dog... 24th January 2025 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US: Existing Home Sales (Dec. 2024) The small rise in existing home sales in December reflects deals that came together in September and October, when mortgage rates hit a nadir of 6.2%, getting across the line. Given the recent selloff... 24th January 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to price pressures intensifying At face value, the latest batch of flash PMIs suggest that economic activity remained weak in Europe at the start of the year and lost some momentum in the US. Meanwhile, price pressures seem to be... 24th January 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: New year, same dilemma for the BoE The data released this week showing a mix of weaker economic activity but rising price pressures will do little to ease the Bank of England's policy dilemma. We suspect that the continued bad news on... 24th January 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Jan. 2025) Despite the small rise in the composite activity PMI from 50.4 in December last year to 50.9 in January, at face value it is still consistent with GDP stagnating at the start of Q1 after the economy... 24th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus Strong dollar is a problem for tomorrow Having hit a record high, we expect the trade-weighted US dollar to climb further in 2025. While the short-term danger that a strong dollar poses to the world economy tends to be overblown, the bigger... 24th January 2025 · 16 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will lift rates to 1.25% by mid-2026 The Bank of Japan signalled further tightening when it lifted its policy rate to 0.5% today. With inflation set to remain above its 2% target this year, we expect the policy rate to reach 1.25% next... 24th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Bank of Japan will lift rates above 1% next year The Bank of Japan signaled further tightening when it lifted its policy rate to 0.5% this week and we expect rates to climb further than most expect over the coming year. Meanwhile, the budget deficit... 24th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Cooling labour markets will support disinflation Data released this week suggest that the RBNZ's concerns about the stickiness of homegrown inflation are overdone. Indeed, non-tradables inflation undershot the Bank's expectations for a second... 24th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMIs (Jan. 25) The continued rise in the composite PMI to its highest point since Q3 last year supports our view that activity will pick up again this quarter. Today’s flash estimate showed that the manufacturing... 24th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (Dec. 24) The acceleration in headline inflation and strength in underlying inflation in December should add to the Bank’s confidence that it can resume rate hikes today and over the coming months. In December... 23rd January 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Valuations may not yet ride to non-US equities’ rescue Although developed market (DM) equities outside the US have purportedly benefited from bargain hunting recently, we doubt they will outperform their counterparts in the US over the course of 2025 as a... 23rd January 2025 · 4 mins read
