UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (May/Jun. 2025) The fallout in the labour market from the hikes in National Insurance Contributions and the minimum wage is not as big as previously thought. Even so, as payroll employment is falling and wage growth... 17th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (June 2025) The sharp rise in unemployment in June makes the RBA’s decision to leave rates on hold earlier this month look like a policy error. We’re increasingly convinced that the incoming data flow will prompt... 17th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (June 25) While overall exports are still holding up well, those to the US are plunging and we think soft global demand will result in a further decline over the coming quarters 17th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily S&P 500 likely to get back on the straight and narrow Yesterday’s further ‘narrowing’ of the US stock market will have left it increasingly ‘concentrated’. But we don’t think these trends will reverse any time soon. And they may strengthen next year. 16th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Jul. 2025) The third consecutive rise in home sales in June lends some support to our view that house prices will soon stabilise, even if mortgage rates do not decline by quite as much as we expect. Elsewhere... 16th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Tariff Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) Based on the tariffs that are currently in place, the average US tariff rate is now about 15%, compared to 2.3% in 2024. Recent letters sent to US trade partners threaten to hike reciprocal tariff... 16th July 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Jun 2025) There were fewer signs of tariff effects in June’s PPI data, meaning our estimate for core PCE prices now points to a trivially smaller 0.27% m/m rise last month. While prices are rising at slower... 16th July 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Jun. 2025) The unexpected rise in CPI inflation from 3.4% in May to a 17-month high of 3.6% in June (consensus & BoE forecast 3.4%, CE 3.3%) may not prevent the Bank of England from cutting interest rates by 25... 16th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Inflation will remain soft even as demand recovers We aren’t convinced that a pick-up in demand in response to looser monetary policy will unleash a wave of price hikes that firms were previously holding back. Accordingly, we’re sticking to our... 16th July 2025 · 11 mins read
US Economics Update Rise in continuing claims not a big cause for concern The pace of the increase in continuing jobless claims would have to accelerate significantly to present a risk to our forecast that the unemployment rate will only edge higher this year. 15th July 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Jun 2025) The 0.2% m/m rise in the core CPI in June indicates that the Fed’s preferred core PCE deflator rose by 0.3% last month, with the annual core PCE inflation rate unchanged at 2.7%. While that would be... 15th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Jun. 2025) The above-target monthly gains in CPI-trim and CPI-median in June leave the three-month annualised pace of those averaged measures holding uncomfortably high at 3.5%, meaning the door is now firmly... 15th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ to cut further as property sector remains weak New Zealand’s housing market is still struggling to recover from its steep post-pandemic downturn. Although we still expect it to turn the corner in the coming months, the risk is that it will remain... 15th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update EUR/USD strength is built on shaky economic assumptions While the interest-rate-differential-defying strength of EUR/USD may be partly explained by increased currency hedging, it also reflects shifting expectations for economic growth. We think those will... 14th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Defence boost demands more than a federal whip-round The federal government’s ambitious plans to boost defence spending will require more than operational spending cuts, although Canada’s favourable fiscal position leaves plenty of scope to borrow... 11th July 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Trump shifts focus back to trade and tariffs President Donald Trump has turned his attention back to trade policy in recent days, threatening to resurrect higher reciprocal tariffs on many countries in another few weeks. He has also indicated... 11th July 2025 · 9 mins read
