UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Aug. 2025) The unexpected fall in the Nationwide measure of house prices in August shows that the recovery in the housing market after the drag from the rise in stamp duty charges on 1st April is being held back... 1st September 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia’s housing rebound continues to gather steam Australian house prices rose at their fastest pace in 18 months in August. With leading indicators suggesting further gains are on the cards, we’re inclined to revise up our forecast for house prices... 1st September 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Court of Appeals agrees that Trump’s tariffs are unlawful By a 7-4 vote, the Federal Court of Appeals has upheld the earlier ruling by the Court of International Trade (CIT) in May that found President Trump exceeded his authority in imposing reciprocal... 29th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Macklem signals fine tuning of Bank framework Speaking at Banco de Mexico’s 100th anniversary event this week, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem steered clear of discussing the economic or policy outlook. However, he offered some useful hints... 29th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Uncertainty is so far a small drag on global investment The unprecedented levels of trade uncertainty brought about by US tariffs appear to have had only a limited impact on investment so far. Uncertainty has persisted and our model indicates that there... 29th August 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) The still tight rental market and softening outlook for housing activity – due to weak employment, high mortgage rates and growing speculation around property tax rises in the Autumn Budget – suggests... 29th August 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Q2 2025) The contraction in second-quarter GDP was due to a large drag from net trade, which is unlikely to be repeated, but the downward revision to monthly GDP in Jun and preliminary July estimate showing... 29th August 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Conditions ripe for fiscal crisis, gov’t must not pull the trigger Most of the conditions that have led to fiscal crises in the past are now in place. The missing factor is a trigger. This means that whatever the Chancellor chooses to do in the Autumn Budget, it’s... 29th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Tight labour market will prompt further BoJ tightening There are signs that the economy is losing momentum in response to US tariffs. However, with the labour market still extremely tight and inflation running well above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, we... 29th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Strong data out of Australia, Luxon’s faux pas There are tentative signs that the Australian economy may be starting to heat up. We learnt that underlying inflation accelerated anew in July, while a new ABS survey showed that firms are becoming... 29th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (July 25) The July activity data were a mixed bag but on balance suggest that the economy will lose momentum this quarter. 29th August 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Possible UK landlord tax a headwind to supply and tailwind to rents If the Chancellor were to apply National Insurance tax to rental income in the Autumn Budget, it could further restrain the supply of rental properties and push up rents by more than otherwise. 28th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily How worrying would AI fatigue be for the rest of the S&P 500? We suspect the AI-fuelled rally in the S&P 500 has further to run, despite the slightly adverse reaction to Nvidia’s latest results. But even if we’re wrong, we doubt there would be much fall-out... 28th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Tariff rate appears manageable Estimates from the US International Trade Commission (USITC) suggest that Canadian exporters faced an average tariff rate of just 2.5% in June. Even if that figure understates the bill, as we suspect... 28th August 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US GDP Q2 (2nd Est) Second-quarter GDP growth was revised up to 3.3% annualised, from 3.0%, for all the right reasons. Growth in final sales to private domestic purchasers was revised up more significantly, to 1.9% from... 28th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ’s independence not under threat While New Zealand’s Prime Minister has indicated a desire for more aggressive policy loosening by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the institutional framework limits the government’s ability to... 28th August 2025 · 3 mins read
