US Economics Update Bar to Fed hikes appears relatively low Recent Fed speeches suggest that, absent a sudden surge in oil prices, the FOMC will keep interest rates unchanged over the summer. It is shaping up to be an extremely close call beyond then, however... 4th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Services still bearing the brunt of Iran war fallout The latest batch of PMIs suggests that industry has been buoyed by precautionary stockbuilding and the AI boom, while consumer-facing services have taken a hit in many economies. At the global level... 3rd June 2026 · 4 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Softer data give BoC some breathing room The downside surprise to first-quarter GDP growth and limited passthrough of higher oil prices to core inflation so far gives the Bank of Canada scope to keep interest rates on hold again next week... 3rd June 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jun. 2026) While we suspect the labour market is too weak to generate big second-round effects, the inevitable rise in CPI inflation from 2.8% in April to a peak of 4.0% early next year under our baseline... 3rd June 2026 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia GDP (Q1 2026) The weakness in the Q1 GDP print belies the fact that domestic demand was still growing at a healthy clip. Even so, it increasingly looks like the RBA won’t be in a rush to resume its tightening cycle... 3rd June 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily A fundamental or speculative surge in the S&P 500? The S&P 500 broke through 7,600 yesterday for the first time ever. With that in mind, has its AI-related surge since the end of 2022 been fuelled by earnings or the price investors are willing to pay... 2nd June 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Apr. 2026) April’s money and lending data suggest that households are responding to the war in Iran by saving a bit less, borrowing just as much and almost carrying on regardless when it comes to housing. Even... 2nd June 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia’s housing market correction is underway Australian house prices fell for a second straight month in May, and leading indicators suggest that the decline has further to run. However, with inflationary pressures still running hot, the housing... 2nd June 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Minimum Wage Decision 2026/27 The strong increase in the minimum wage this year makes it more likely that wage growth will overshoot the RBA’s expectations, bolstering the case for additional policy tightening. 2nd June 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (May 2026) The bigger-than-expected fall in the Nationwide measure of house prices in May brings the index more into line with the recent weakness in the alternative Halifax measure of house prices and provides... 1st June 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Wage growth accelerating despite weak activity The surprise 0.1% annualised decline in first-quarter GDP stole the headlines this week, but the bigger concern for the Bank of Canada was arguably the evidence of accelerating wage growth despite... 29th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Q1 2026 and Mar.) The trade-induced contraction in GDP last quarter meant the economy tipped into a technical recession at the start of the year. But rising oil and gas activity mean this is certain to already be over... 29th May 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Peaks in petrol prices and mortgage rates may be in the past The recent falls in oil prices and swap rates suggest that the peaks in petrol prices and mortgage rates may be behind us. While that doesn't mean inflation won't rise and the economy won't weaken... 29th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Resilient activity data point to rate hike next month While the BoJ’s measures of underlying inflation were the weakest they’ve been in years in April, the recent surge in input costs due to the Iran War will result in a renewed strengthening. Indeed... 29th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A June pause doesn’t mean the RBA is done hiking A string of soft April activity and inflation figures, alongside survey data showing firms dialling back their capex plans, will give the RBA room to leave rates on hold in June. However, we suspect... 29th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Activity, Labour Market (Apr. 26) & Tokyo CPI (May 26) The April activity data show that Japan’s economy is shrugging off the energy cost shock and cement the case for a BoJ rate hike next month. 29th May 2026 · 2 mins read
