Capital Daily The euro and relative interest rate expectations We don’t think government bond yield gaps with the US will continue to shift in favour of the euro-zone as they have over recent months, even if the ECB continues hiking after the Fed stops. That will... 23rd January 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Surveys point to much slower employment growth The sharp fall in hiring intentions in the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey suggests that the 104,000 surge in employment in December is not a sign of things to come. The survey points to a... 23rd January 2023 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Core inflation revisions won’t change Bank’s thinking The CPI-trim and CPI-median measures of core inflation will be revised up next month but that does not change our view that they will fall sharply over the first half of this year. We think the 25 bp... 20th January 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Investment set for weak H1 before picking up in late-2023 We expect the slowdown in investment activity in the second half of 2022 to persist into the first half of 2023. But we think transactions will begin to recover later this year once interest rates... 20th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Event Canada Drop-In: Is this the end of the Bank of Canada’s tightening cycle? 25th January 2023, 5:00PM GMT Join Paul Ashworth, our Chief North America Economist, Stephen Brown, who leads our Canada coverage, and Jonathan Peterson, Senior FX Markets Econ
Europe Economics Update Germany to avoid industrial recession We now think German industry will continue to grow in the coming months as lower gas prices, easing supply shortages and high backlogs of orders support production. 20th January 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the outlook for the US dollar With inflationary pressures easing and the global growth outlook improving, we no longer expect the US dollar to breach its late September peak. But we still think that souring risk appetite... 20th January 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Activity data take a turn for the worse The weakness of retail sales and manufacturing output over the final two months of 2022 has reignited market fears of a hard landing this week, with the Fed’s latest Beige Book acknowledging that... 20th January 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Domestic inflation is proving persistent CPI inflation is falling, but domestic inflationary pressures are proving persistent as the labour market remains tight and wage growth remains strong. Combined with a more resilient economy than the... 20th January 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) The 1.0% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in December was much worse than both we and the consensus (+0.5% m/m) had expected. That meant sales volumes fell 1.3% q/q in Q4 and were a disappointing 5.4%... 20th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly 10-year yield ceiling will be tested again soon 10-year JGB yields have traded well within the 50bp tolerance band since the BoJ maintained its policy settings on Wednesday. Even so, we still expect the Bank to jettison Yield Curve Control in April... 20th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Strong income growth in New Zealand won’t last The resignation of New Zealand’s Prime Minister opens the door for the opposition to return to power, who have signalled looser policy at a time when government spending is already around record highs... 20th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Dec. 2022) Inflation hit 4% in December but due to the government’s energy subsidies we expect it to fall below the Bank of Japan’s 2.0% target by mid-year. 20th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Shift in the US stock-bond correlation might be here to stay We expect the negative correlation between the returns from Treasuries and US equities that followed yesterday’s poor batch of economic data to continue through to the spring, as inflation continues... 19th January 2023 · 6 mins read
