US Commercial Property Update The six major markets will not be the only losers Pandemic-accelerated migration patterns were already driving outperformance in the southern states. But they have also brought the poor performance of weaker markets to the fore. With those structural... 10th August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Focus Ranking the US’s largest warehousing markets We think that major distribution hubs, where rents are high and availability is low, will underperform their neighbouring markets over the next few years. Tenants will increasingly look past the major... 4th August 2022 · 21 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Jun.) There was little evidence of any slowdown in June’s job figures, but the deep divisions in performance at the metro level remained. Dallas and Austin stood out on a range of comparisons, while... 3rd August 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q2 2022) NCREIF total returns fell back again in Q2, dropping to 3.2% q/q from their end-2021 peak of over 6%, as higher interest rates and weaker growth hit property performance. We expect the remainder of... 26th July 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Office conversions most likely in high land cost metros The contrast between the strong performance of the apartment sector and the weak performance of offices in the last two years has made office-to-residential conversions more viable, but the numbers... 22nd July 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Southern metros to outperform Since the release of our previous Apartment Metro Outlook three months ago the interest rate environment has become more negative for real estate, and we now expect yields to rise in many metros this... 12th July 2022 · 11 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Office Metro Outlook In light of the deterioration in the economic environment, our office metro forecasts have been downgraded across the board. Those downgrades are driven by a substantial shift in our yield view, which... 1st July 2022 · 14 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (May) Employment growth slowed last month, but remained above its historic averages. The big gainer in May was Dallas, which recorded the strongest 3m/3m growth in both total and office-based employment... 29th June 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Apr.) The ongoing jobs recovery continued in April, although employment remained below its pre-pandemic level in more than half the 30 metros covered. Those losers tend to be expensive coastal metros and... 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Focus What to expect from QT We expect the Fed to reduce its asset holdings by more than $3trn over the next couple of years, enough to bring the balance sheet back in line with its pre-pandemic level as a share of GDP. That... 10th May 2022 · 12 mins read
US Commercial Property Update ULI Consensus Forecast (Spring 2022) Consensus forecasts for rents and total returns in 2022 and 2023 have been upgraded in all four sectors since the last survey. But those changes come with property pricing looking more stretched than... 4th May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q1 2022) Total returns on the NCREIF index were strong again in Q1, at 5.3% q/q. That was led by industrial, where they reached 11% q/q, with apartments at just over 5% and the other sectors all lagging at... 26th April 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q4 2021) The NCREIF index saw its strongest ever quarterly price appreciation in Q4, with values up by 5.1% q/q, driving a quarterly return of 6.2%. That took annual returns to 17.7%, led by industrial, where... 26th January 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Making sense of the latest strong data on US real estate Recent data releases and surveys show a booming commercial real estate market, particularly in the industrial and apartment sectors. While the level of prices is raising some eyebrows, we don’t see... 2nd November 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update ULI Consensus Forecast (Fall 2021) Consensus forecasts for 2021 have been upgraded in all four major sectors on the back of strong investor demand. But tellingly the picture is more varied for 2022-23, where industrial and apartment... 27th October 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q3 2021) The NCREIF index recorded a huge 5.2% quarterly return in Q3 thanks to further improvement in all sectors. With no sign of any let-up in investment demand, that puts annual returns on course to exceed... 26th October 2021 · 3 mins read
