Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Risk of wage-price spiral still contained The more muted rise in wages last quarter should mollify the RBA’s concerns that the surge in inflation will trigger a wage-price spiral. While the fading impact of last year’s outsized minimum wage... 24th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Housing downturn not over just yet House prices bounced back in February, led by Sydney. While leading indicators point to an improvement in housing market activity, the RBA’s determination to raise interest rates further means that... 24th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Jan. 2023) Inflation hit a four-decade high in January and while we still expect inflation to fall below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target by mid-year thanks largely to the government’s energy subsidies, there are... 24th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report There was another strong rise in commercial crude stocks last week. With little prospect of any upturn in domestic demand anytime soon, commercial stocks should continue to rebound in the coming... 23rd February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuation scores rise, but still some way to go this year Q4 property valuation scores rose from their Q3 troughs, as equity earnings yields fell and property yields all increased. Even so, that left all major sectors still looking overvalued, suggesting... 23rd February 2023 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Rationalising the relative rebound in US big-tech We think the recent outperformance of the US “big-tech” “super-sector” could continue, but not because of the “bargain hunting” that we think has caused it to occur despite higher real Treasury yields... 23rd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Bond market may already be braced for “higher for longer” Investors have ramped up their expectations for the near-term path of the Fed funds rate amid talk of “higher for longer”. But long-run expectations for the policy rate have already climbed... 23rd February 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Higher rates priced in, but much weaker growth isn’t The recent resilience of economic activity has left us comfortable with our view that the Bank of England will raise interest rates from 4.00% now to a peak of 4.50%, rather than to 4.25% as analysts... 23rd February 2023 · 10 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Buyers respond to higher rates by borrowing less Higher interest rates have begun to reduce the size of mortgage that buyers take out. As two-thirds of buyers rely on a mortgage, that will decrease most buyers’ budgets and put further downward... 23rd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capex Survey (Q4 2022) Private investment picked up firmly last quarter and although firms expect capital spending to remain relatively healthy, their projections are consistent with a slowdown in real terms this financial... 23rd February 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Re-pricing set to dominate rental growth differentials Data for the fourth quarter showed a widespread deterioration in occupier demand in all three sectors. This was worst in some of the big six and West coast metros, with markets like Phoenix, Portland... 22nd February 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Mixed signals from underlying inflation The January CPI data provided mixed signals about developments in underlying inflation. The CPI excluding food and energy and the CPI excluding the eight most volatile components each rose by just 0.1... 22nd February 2023 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily EZ markets may keep struggling to shake off concerns in the US We doubt “risky” assets in the euro-zone will be resilient to the further weakness we foresee in their counterparts in the US. 22nd February 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Have households spent all their pandemic savings? There is mounting evidence that households have exhausted their stock of savings built up during the pandemic. That has supported real spending and cushioned the blow from the fall in real household... 22nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
