Global Economics Update PMIs show no hint of a rebound in industry yet The latest PMIs suggest that the decline in global manufacturing activity has further to run. At least weak activity is weighing on price pressures, which should lead to further falls in core goods... 1st August 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily “Risky” assets may face a harder road to further gains Some measures of market risk premia have become quite low, suggesting to us that the bar for further big gains in risky assets has risen. 1st August 2023 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.) The modest improvement in the ISM manufacturing index to 46.4 in July, from 46.0, suggests the manufacturing downturn may be bottoming out. But it still points to a fairly steep decline in... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Despite the easing in CPI inflation from 8.7% in May to 7.9% in June and core inflation from 7.1% to 6.9%, we think strong wage growth and the continued resilience of real GDP will mean interest rates... 1st August 2023 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA stays on hold again The Reserve Bank of Australia left rates unchanged at 4.10% for the second consecutive month. And while the Board continued to strike some hawkish notes, there is a good chance that its tightening... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Nationwide House Prices (Jul.) The slight fall in house prices in July is the first sign of the surge in mortgage rates since mid-May taking its toll. As we expect mortgage rates to remain around their current level for the next 12... 1st August 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Aug. 23) 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.) Australia’s house-price rebound went full steam ahead in July. At the margin, that should strengthen the case for the RBA to lift its cash rate by a further 25bp at its meeting later today... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Credit conditions remain tight The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey shows that, even though the banking crisis has faded, credit conditions remain unusually tight. Although the net percentage of banks tightening... 31st July 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Jun. 2023) Higher interest rates continued to gradually feed through to weaker activity in bank lending in June, particularly in the housing market. We suspect this effect will intensify as the Bank of England... 31st July 2023 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update Unpriced climate risks in US residential property Climate change is expected to intensify the scale and frequency of flooding over the coming years. Housing markets in the US have yet to fully price in these risks, leaving many properties... 31st July 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Data dependence spells the end for Fed tightening This week’s FOMC meeting brought hints that Fed officials are no longer wedded to previous plans for further policy tightening. Even if activity growth continues to hold up a bit better than expected... 28th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly September hike requires upside surprise The Bank of Canada’s Summary of Deliberations highlighted the Bank’s concern that inflation could become stuck above the 2% target. Although headline inflation faces a bumpy downward path over the... 28th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Q2 resilience unlikely to last, but inflation to stay high National data released so far suggest that euro-zone GDP rose in Q2, but with activity surveys very weak in July and the full effect of monetary tightening still to be felt, we continue to expect GDP... 28th July 2023 · 10 mins read
US Rapid Response Personal Inc. & Spend. (Jun.), Employment Cost Index (Q2) The slowdown in both the employment cost index of wage growth and core PCE inflation to their lowest levels in nearly two years suggests that resilient activity growth won’t be enough to convince Fed... 28th July 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE QE losses unlikely to lead to a big fiscal tightening We doubt the Bank of England’s cumulative net loss from its quantitative easing programme will be a big as the £150bn estimated by the Bank earlier this week. That’s because we don’t think interest... 28th July 2023 · 5 mins read
