Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand GDP (Q2 2023) The unexpectedly strong rebound in activity last quarter means that the RBNZ may well judge it has more work to do. All told, there are growing risks that the Bank will not only hike again, but also... 21st September 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed doubles down on 'higher for longer' The Fed doubled down on its mantra that interest rates will remain higher for longer, with its updated projections suggesting that the economy will enjoy the softest of soft landings and core... 20th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We still expect a Fed-fuelled Treasury rally We remain of the view that investors are overestimating how high the federal funds rate will be over the next couple of years, and that Treasury yields will fall as a result. 20th September 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Fixed-rate debt blunting impact of Fed hikes The prevalence of fixed-rate debt suggests the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes will continue to deal less damage to the economy than they might have done in the past. But higher rates are still likely to... 20th September 2023 · 5 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Despite the recent rebound in energy prices, the downward trend in core inflation remains firmly intact. And with a growing number of indicators suggesting the labour market is not much tighter than... 20th September 2023 · 1 min read
Event Asia Drop-in: Japan Special – Will the Bank of Japan finally abandon easy policy? 1695884400 It’s a sign of our inflationary times that even the Bank of Japan could soon consider raising interest rates in what would be the first such move in 16 years.
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Aug. 2023) The unambiguously good CPI inflation figures for August increase the chances that the Bank of England decides to leave interest rates at 5.25% tomorrow, but we still think one final 25 basis point... 20th September 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Strikes remain few and far between The United Auto Workers (UAW) strike action aimed at the Big Three automakers should have only a trivial effect on the broader economy. More generally, despite the tightness of labour market... 19th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Higher oil prices not a game-changer for inflation We are not convinced that the increase in oil prices has set the stage for a sustained rebound in inflation. Accordingly, there is little chance that developed market central banks will resume or... 19th September 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our forecast that the Bank of England won’t start cutting interest rates until the second half of 2024 means mortgage rates are likely to stay between 5.5% and 6.0% until mid-2024. While transactions... 19th September 2023 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (Aug.) Housing starts fell sharply across both the single-family and multifamily sectors in August, suggesting that construction has now reached a turning point. We expect this downward trend to continue for... 19th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ policy rate will settle at 0% in the long run The wage-setting behaviour of Japanese firms has changed over the last couple of years and to reflect this we’re revising our long-run inflation forecast from 0.5% to 1.0%. However, that would still... 19th September 2023 · 3 mins read
