UK Housing Market Rapid Response Nationwide House Prices (Oct. 2023) The large increase in house prices in October was a massive surprise given higher mortgage rates should be severely restricting the number of people able to buy and the amount they can spend. But at... 1st November 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Faster wage growth should give BoJ confidence to tighten With wage growth set to strengthen further over the coming year, we think the Bank of Japan will soon have sufficient confidence in the sustainability of higher inflation to end negative interest... 1st November 2023 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Oct.) With house prices now at a record high and affordability constraints becoming increasingly binding, Australia’s housing rebound will soon run out of steam. 1st November 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q3 2023) With the balance of demand and supply in the labour market showing further improvement, we’re more convinced than ever that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand won’t lift rates any higher. 31st October 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Aug. 2023) Another large gain in house prices in August suggests that the extremely limited supply of existing homes for sale continued to outweigh high mortgage rates. We think monthly gains in house prices... 31st October 2023 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Cost Index (Q3) The slightly stronger 1.1% increase in the employment cost index in the third quarter is another sign that the earlier rapid easing in labour market conditions may be fading, but the forward-looking... 31st October 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank will end negative interest rates in early-2024 The Bank of Japan today de facto abolished Yield Curve Control and we think policymakers will call time on negative interest rates as soon as January. 31st October 2023 · 4 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will hit the brakes once more With inflation surprising on the upside in Q3, we expect the RBA to lift rates by 25bp at its meeting next week. However, we suspect that the next rate hike will be the last one in the current cycle... 31st October 2023 · 8 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Sep. 23) 31st October 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Higher for longer to push all-property cap rates above 5% On the back of upward adjustments to our 10-Year Treasury yield forecasts, we now expect to see a larger increase in cap rates. This will see office cap rates rise to over 6.5% by end-2024, pushing... 30th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Worrying signs for the US economy from CMBS spreads A renewed surge in the spreads of private-label commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), at a time when the spreads of high-yield (HY) corporate bonds have remained fairly subdued (see Chart 1)... 30th October 2023 · 4 mins read
London Housing Markets Chart Pack London Housing Chart Pack (Q4 2023) London house prices have fallen by less than we anticipated, and stopped falling altogether in Q3. However, the high level of house prices compared to incomes should mean that higher mortgage rates... 30th October 2023 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Higher for longer narrative has gone too far While we think sticky core inflation will mean that the Bank of England keeps interest rates at their peak of 5.25% until late in 2024, we think the markets have gone too far in concluding that rates... 30th October 2023 · 11 mins read
