Japan Economics Weekly BoJ will probably hike in April rather than March Most of the plunge in inflation in Tokyo in January was driven by one-off factors that the Bank of Japan is stripping out from its inflation gauges. However, the underlying trend in inflation... 26th January 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Tax cut revamp unlikely to prove inflationary Some commentators have raised concerns that the Australian government's changes to forthcoming Stage 3 income tax cuts could add fuel to the inflation fire. However, we remain sceptical, given that... 26th January 2024 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Update RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q4) The Q4 RICS survey suggested that occupier and investment sentiment remained pessimistic in Q4. We expect sentiment will be subdued in at least the first half of 2024, with credit conditions staying... 25th January 2024 · 3 mins read
London Housing Markets Chart Pack London Housing Chart Pack (Q1 2024) London house prices were more resilient in 2023 than we had expected, falling by 2.4% y/y in Q4 close to the national average of -2.3% y/y. London is more reliant on mortgaged buyers than other... 25th January 2024 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Downward trend set to intensify A reversal of the earlier boost from unseasonably mild December weather probably weighed on non-farm payroll growth in January. We expect a more muted 150,000 increase. The annual benchmark revisions... 25th January 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response New Home Sales (Dec. 2023) New home sales rebounded in December, reversing nearly all of their decline in the previous month when mortgage borrowing costs were much closer to their 8% peak. 25th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Global Economics Shipping Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) This is a special Global Economics Chart Pack that provides clients with key analysis to make sense of the macro and market impact of the disruptions to maritime shipping. The charts in this document... 25th January 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response GDP (Q4) Although GDP growth came in hotter than expect in the fourth quarter, underlying inflation continued to slow, with annualised core PCE inflation running at the 2% target in the fourth quarter. The... 25th January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q4 2023) Having deteriorated for the best part of 2023, sentiment over all-property occupier demand and rents improved in Q4. However, the balances remain negative, pointing to subdued demand and rental growth... 25th January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Fiscal Headroom Monitor: More room for tax cuts Our new Fiscal Headroom Monitor uses a simplified version of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s model to estimate how changes in market interest rate expectations and gilt yields are influencing... 25th January 2024 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Update Questions from our latest US housing drop-in We held a 20-minute online briefing this week to discuss our new forecast for the US housing market in 2024. You can watch the recording of the “drop-in” here. This Update recaps our answers to the... 25th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank policy rate to fall quickly in H2 Norges Bank today reiterated that it will leave its policy rate at 4.5% “for some time”. But we think that inflation will fall rapidly this year, so when the Bank does start to cut rates, it will do... 25th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norges Bank policy rate to fall quickly in H2 Norges Bank today reiterated that it will leave its policy rate at 4.5% “for some time”. But we think that inflation will fall rapidly this year, so when the Bank does start to cut rates, it will do... 25th January 2024 · 2 mins read
BoE Watch Taking the first steps towards rate cuts At the policy meeting on Thursday 1 st February, the Bank of England will probably throw in the towel on the pretence that interest rates could rise further and take the first steps towards cutting... 25th January 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest price pressures remain elevated January’s flash PMI surveys suggest that GDP growth in advanced economies ticked up from a very weak pace at the start of 2024. And with price pressures still strong, central banks will probably... 24th January 2024 · 3 mins read
