Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Ignore Chalmers’ predictions of spending restraint If the Coalition wins the federal election due by May, the fiscal stance that Treasurer Jim Chalmers will unveil in the Budget on 25 th March may end up being supplanted by a more restrictive one... 14th March 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK rental demand to cool, but it won’t collapse The surge in rental demand is over, but rental demand will probably remain stronger than pre-pandemic levels. That suggests the prop to rents growth in 2025 and 2026 from solid demand will fade only... 13th March 2025 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook US Commercial Property Outlook: Returns will be weighed down by “new normal” for bond yields Our new forecasts have been compiled in the most uncertain geoeconomic environment for a long time. But our firmly below-consensus expectations for US CRE are led by our view that nearly three years... 13th March 2025 · 20 mins read
BoE Watch BoE Watch: UK MPC not as dovish as March’s vote may suggest The Bank of England will almost certainly leave interest rates at 4.50% at the policy meeting on Thursday 20th March and this might be the second meeting in a row when the vote suggests the Bank is... 13th March 2025 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Feb. 2025) While final demand and core PPI both surprised to the downside in February, the price increases in the components which matter for the PCE deflator were on the whole hotter than we had anticipated. As... 13th March 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Feb. 2025) February’s RICS survey suggests the downside risks to our 2025 forecasts for housing demand and prices from the weak economy continue to grow. But bigger falls in mortgage rates than most expect over... 13th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update BoC warns it must protect against tariff-induced inflation Although the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25bp again today, it also warned that “monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war” and that it must guard against tariff-related rises... 12th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Mar. 2025) Although the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25bp again today, it also warned that “monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war” and that it must guard against tariff-related rises... 12th March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Feb. 2025) The softer 0.23% m/m rise in core CPI in February is not as encouraging at it looks, as the components which feed into the Fed’s preferred PCE price index rose more sharply. While it will depend a lot... 12th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Case for further BoJ tightening continues to strengthen The Bank of Japan will keep policy settings unchanged at its upcoming meeting that ends on 19 th March. But with inflation set to overshoot the Bank’s forecasts, we expect the Bank to hike rates again... 12th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) The imposition of US tariffs and risk of more to come will weigh on exports, consumer confidence and investment. As a result, we now forecast weaker economic growth, with GDP expanding by just 1.0%... 11th March 2025 · 1 min read
US Economics Update JOLTS data healthy prior to DOGE purge While January’s JOLTS report was not much to shout about, timelier labour market data suggest conditions look set to worsen amid DOGE’s gutting of the federal workforce. We remain optimistic for now... 11th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Focus Trudeaunomics is dead, whatever happens Recent shifts in the polls suggest new Liberal Party leader Mark Carney and Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre are both in with a decent chance of winning the forthcoming general election. The... 10th March 2025 · 18 mins read
UK Economics Focus UK Fiscal Event Preview - Spending cuts now, but defence needs may lead to higher taxes and borrowing The Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, will present her fiscal update on 26th March against the challenging backdrop of geopolitical ruptures, tariffs threats and a stagnating domestic economy. We expect... 10th March 2025 · 19 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Jan. 25) Regular pay growth surged in January and with this year’s spring wage negotiations set to result in stronger pay hikes than last year, wage growth will pick up further over the course of the year 9th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Exporters still face hit despite tariff exemption The US tariff exemption for USMCA-compliant goods still leaves considerable uncertainty for the economy because less than 40% of exports to the US last year were formally USMCA compliant. The share... 7th March 2025 · 5 mins read
