Global Markets Update

Credit spreads during equity bubbles: how low, how long?

Credit spreads aren’t bound to fall further if a bubble continues to inflate in the stock market, judging by what happened in the US in the second half of the 1990s.

19th March 2024 · 5 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Housing Starts (Feb. 2024)

The strong rebound in housing starts last month confirmed January’s slump was a weather-related blip. Although we expected starts to bounce back, February’s data were even stronger than we had...

19th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Consumer Prices (Feb. 2024)

The surprise fall in headline inflation to 2.8%, from 2.9%, is further reason to expect the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates soon, although we still think it will wait until June rather than...

19th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Event

Drop-In: Global Economic Outlook – On course for a soft landing

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The global economic outlook is subject to various uncertainties which have left forecasters split over the possibilities of a hard landing, soft landing or e

Japan Economics Update

Ultra-loose policy ends but tightening cycle unlikely

The Bank of Japan today called time on more than a decade of ultra-loose policy settings, but we don’t think it will lift its policy rate any further over the coming months.

19th March 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA tones down hawkish bias ever so slightly

The RBA sounded a touch less hawkish at today’s meeting and we think the Bank will start to lower interest rates by August.

19th March 2024 · 3 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Bank of Japan Meeting (Mar. 23)

The Bank of Japan ended ultra-loose monetary policy today but we don’t think it will raise its policy rate any further.

19th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Mar. 23)

19th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Event

US Real Estate Drop-In: Will southern metros continue to lead?

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The pandemic-induced “great migration” fuelled rapid growth for apartment rents and house prices in southern metros.

Canada Economics Update

Canada Housing Watch (Mar.)

House prices stabilised in February and, despite emerging signs of financial stress among households, we believe that the risk of renewed price declines is limited. Nonetheless, with affordability so...

18th March 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Southern house price outperformance to last

The national average house price has risen by nearly 50% since the start of the pandemic, but that masks a lot of regional variation. The rise in house prices in southern metros has been even larger...

18th March 2024 · 4 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Fed to stress caution amid inflation uncertainty

We still expect the Fed to cut interest rates in June, although we don’t expect officials to provide a strong steer either for or against at next week’s FOMC meeting. The updated Summary of Economic...

15th March 2024 · 5 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Debt for another day

Households are offsetting the impact of high interest rates by paying down less of their debt. While that has helped the economy to avoid recession, it also suggests there will be less of a boost from...

15th March 2024 · 6 mins read

US Rapid Response

US Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar. 2024)

The small fall the University of Michigan measure of consumer sentiment in March is further evidence that the buoyant stock market alone will not prevent consumption growth from slowing.

15th March 2024 · 1 min read

UK Economics Weekly

Weak productivity may keep domestic inflation sticky

If the UK's recent dismal productivity performance continues, the Bank of England may need to wait for wage growth to fall further before it feels comfortable cutting interest rates. With the latest...

15th March 2024 · 8 mins read