The 0.4% m/m gain in manufacturing output in September, together with some modest upward revisions to prior months, suggests that the factory sector is just about holding up despite the deterioration in the global manufacturing outlook – particularly in China and Europe. That supports our estimate that third-quarter GDP growth was an above-consensus 3.3% annualised. But we doubt that US manufacturing can defy gravity for much longer, with the latest survey evidence consistent with declines in output soon.
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