One last rate hike...

After a run of rather predictable meetings during the past few months, next week’s monetary policy meeting looks set to be finely balanced. We think another 25bp rate hike is the most likely outcome but would not be surprised if policymakers left rates on hold. And either way, President Lagarde will stress that interest rates will remain high for a long while. That would be consistent with our view that the first rate cut will not take place until September next year. 

Note: We'll be discussing the ECB September rate decision  We’ll be discussing the ECB September rate decision – along with those of the Fed and the Bank of England – in a ‘Drop-In’ on Thursday, 21st September. Register here to join the online briefing.