US Economics Weekly Policymakers lay out the case for more action Policymakers were back in the spotlight last week, with hopes growing that we could now see further monetary and fiscal stimulus. Unfortunately, we doubt that the Fed will have much success with what... 13th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed increasingly likely to launch Operation Twist On balance, we still think that the acceleration in core inflation will prevent the Fed from undertaking a third round of quantitative easing, even after the disappointing August payrolls figures. The... 6th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Halfway through a lost decade By the end of this year, it will be five years since the housing bubble burst. Given that the economy is likely to grow by no more than 2% this year, the US is only halfway through a lost decade. What... 30th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Deficit in demand to hinder economy for years Much more important than whether or not the US economy contracts for one quarter or more is that a fundamental deficit in demand means there is little prospect of a significant and sustained... 23rd August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed may yet need more policy tricks If the experiences of the Bank of Canada and Bank of Japan are anything to go by, the Fed's pledge to keep rates low "at least through mid-2013" supports our new forecast that 10 year Treasury yields... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Recession risks rising While we think that the chances of another recession are relatively low, the risks are certainly rising. More generally, the recent run of weak economic data and the sharp falls in equity prices... 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Downgrade, default or both? Even if the politicians finally get their act together and agree a deficit reduction package, the resulting spending cuts may not be large enough to appease the credit rating agencies. As such, we... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Pick-up in GDP growth no thanks to consumers Our calculations suggest that GDP growth accelerated a little to 2.3% annualised in the second quarter, from 1.9% in the first, despite the fact that consumption growth apparently slowed to less than... 26th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly How exposed is the US to European debt defaults? The risk that the US government will default on some of its debt obligations lingered last week as the stand-off over the raising of the debt ceiling appeared to intensify. At the same time, it has... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Debt ceiling impasse drags on The impasse over raising the debt limit continued last week, although it looks like the two sides are edging closer to a deal ahead of the 2nd August deadline set by the Treasury. If there's no deal... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US external position not such a big risk to the dollar Although the US is running a budget deficit equal to 9% of GDP and a current account deficit of 3% of GDP, its net external liabilities at 17% of GDP are not actually that large. Last year, they even... 5th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Consumers still facing a number of headwinds The sharp drop back in energy prices last week should provide a much needed boost to real consumption in the third quarter. Unfortunately, that boost from falling prices will only be temporary... 28th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Misery index hits 28-year high Even though the number of Google searches for "double dip recession" has surged and the old fashioned misery index has increased to a 28-year high, Americans are probably not quite as gloomy as those... 21st June 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly End of QE2 won't drive Treasury yields higher With the end of QE2 approaching, it is notable that in the first quarter the Fed absorbed all of the net issuance of Treasury debt and then some. Nevertheless, we still believe it is the stock of... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Second quarter shaping up to be as weak as the first The data released last week strongly suggested that the recovery has hit its second "soft patch" which, for an expansion that is less than two years old, is troubling to say the least. Admittedly... 6th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Twin threats to banks' income It's ironic that in the same week that the movie of the book "Too Big To Fail" was first premiered on American television, it was revealed that the net income of US banks was higher in the first... 30th May 2011 · 1 min read
