US Economics Weekly Banking sector getting stronger Much attention has focused on the surge in European banking stocks since the ECB first announced its LTRO bank lending scheme. But over the same period, US banking stocks have also risen by 20%. And... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rise in oil price not big enough to pose a threat The recent resurgence in the price of crude oil has led to speculation that, in a repeat of what happened at this time last year, a spike in energy prices could undermine real economic growth just... 27th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Mind the output gap trap It is easy to fall into the trap of debating how large or small the output gap is. The simple truth, however, is that no one knows. But while the output gap is not directly observable, the... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Participation rate will keep on falling It has been suggested that the reported decline in the unemployment rate to a near three-year low of 8.3% in January, from a high of 10.0% in February 2009, is not nearly as good as it looks because... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Federal debt burden set to keep on climbing Last week both the Fed Chairman and the non-partisan CBO issued a stark warning about the fiscal path that America is heading down. Unless corrective action is taken, by the end of this decade Federal... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed may still unleash QE3 soon The Fed's new interest rate projections ended up having only a modest impact on market expectations last week. Indeed, the impact was smaller than we might have expected based on the pledge in the... 30th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Industrial revival won’t last Recent signs that manufacturing activity is going from strength to strength have prompted some hopes that industry will save the economy from another year of pretty weak growth. The problem is that... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US economic outlook remains modest at best The recent run of stronger economic data has led to speculation that the US economy could be poised for a good 2012 after all. This is a remarkable turnaround from August last year when speculation... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed taking further steps into policy unknown In addition to forecasting interest rates for the first time, by the end of this month the Fed may have adopted numerical targets for both inflation and the unemployment rate and perhaps even launched... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What to watch in 2012 Just how US banks cope with the euro-zone crisis, which we believe will involve the departure of at least one nation from the currency union next year, could make or break the US economy in 2012. 27th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is the saving rate higher than it looks? We are not convinced by suggestions that, due to either income being under recorded or based on alternative ways of measuring savings, the true household saving rate is much higher than the published... 19th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Slow deleveraging continues The economy's slow deleveraging continued in the third quarter, with total debt falling to a four-year low of 340% of GDP down from a peak of 373% in the first quarter of 2009. 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed to the rescue? The announcement last Wednesday of coordinated action by the Fed, ECB and other central banks to boost global dollar liquidity certainly had a big impact on financial markets. The announced changes... 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Would US banks survive a euro collapse The mounting fiscal crisis in the euro-zone obviously represents the biggest downside to our forecast that the US economy will continue to expand next year, albeit by a pretty modest 1.5%. In a worst... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Few market consequences if the super committee fails Even if the super committee fails to recommend ways to reduce the budget deficit by Wednesday's deadline, as there will be no government shutdown, no debt default and no credit rating downgrade, we... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Disturbing decline in demand for loans Prime Minister Noda’s announcement on Friday that Japan would join negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership free-trade agreement is a step in the right direction. Not only would the pact open up... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
