US Economics Update Revising down our core inflation forecasts The indirect impact on core inflation from the recent fall in energy prices is one more reason why coreinflation won’t increase as fast as we previously expected. Nonetheless, we still think that both... 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators (Sep.) The tapering of the Fed's monthly asset purchases might finally be having a knock-on impact on the growth rates of the broader monetary aggregates. Our estimate of the broadest M3 measure shows that... 21st October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed shouldn’t respond to lower inflation expectations Since the recent fall in US inflation expectations is solely being driven by the decline in oil prices, it won’t prevent the Fed from ending QE3 or raising interest rates next year. 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Market moves hard to square with solid economic fundamentals The growing sense of market panic evident in the sharp declines in equity prices and the strong rally in US Treasury bonds over the past week is hard to square with the solid outlook for US economic... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Small businesses struggle in September As it is consistent with slower investment growth, lower inflation and a rise in the unemployment rate, the NFIB’s latest survey of small firms bolsters the case of the doves at the Fed. 14th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update More signs of labour market strength The fall in part-time employment is one more positive trend to emerge from September’s Employment Report. And more recent releases provide further signs that the labour market is improving rapidly. 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update iPhone 6 release won’t be a plus for the economy While the new iPhone release may have some effect on forthcoming consumption and import data, it won’t have any notable effect on GDP. Nonetheless, the outlook for consumption remains positive. 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Even as the Fed has reduced the pace of its monthly asset purchases, the annual rate of broad money growth has remained largely stable at close to 6%. 22nd September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Other developments offset stronger dollar Even though the dollar has recently risen to a four-year high, other developments mean that overall financial conditions are supporting the economy by more than they were earlier in the year. As such... 18th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed pushes up rate projections Although the Fed opted to keep the language in the FOMC statement that there will be a "considerable time" between the end of the asset purchases in October and the first rate hike, we suspect that... 17th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Labour market conditions still strong The latest NFIB small business and JOLTS surveys indicate that the disappointing gain in payroll employment in August was just a blip rather than the start of a major slowdown. What’s more, the... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Confidence to continue climbing We’re not convinced that equity prices will continue to boost consumer confidence, but an acceleration in wage growth should allow confidence to rise further above its long run average. 8th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Major fiscal improvement has already occurred The CBO’s latest budget projections highlight the extent of the improvement in America’s fiscalposition in recent years. At the same time, the CBO appears to agree with the Fed’s assessment thatthere... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen stands her ground on slack If the release of the minutes of July’s FOMC meeting on Wednesday suggested that the Fed had takentwo steps closer to raising interest rates, then today’s speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen at Jackson... 22nd August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed moving closer to rate hike The minutes of the FOMC meeting that took place at the end of July suggest that the Fed has takenanother step closer towards raising interest rates. This is consistent with our view that “lift-off”... 21st August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The recent rapid rise in bank loans, which is partly being driven by auto loans, is not a cause for concern and instead is a sign that the economy is becoming stronger. 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
