US Economics Update Yellen reiterates that lift-off still likely later this year Fed Chair Janet Yellen's latest comments don't change our view that the Fed is still on track for a September lift-off. Furthermore, we expect rising wage growth and core inflation to trigger a much... 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun 15) The growth rate of our broad M3 monetary aggregate slowed slightly to 5.0% y/y in June, reflecting the ongoing impact from the Fed's decision to taper its asset purchases last year. 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Decline in the participation rate is mostly structural The decline in the labour participation rate to a near 40-year low of 62.6% in June largely reflects structural factors, such as the aging population, rather than cyclical weakness. 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is Puerto Rico the next Greece? Governor Alejandro Garcia Padilla's comment last week that "the debt is not payable" has raised fears that a Puerto Rico debt crisis could have a bigger impact on US financial markets than the crisis... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update “Grexit” alone unlikely to deter the Fed from raising rates The Fed would, of course, be reluctant to hike rates for the first time since 2006 in the midst of another global financial crisis triggered by Greek exit from the euro. However, we do not expect... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The annual growth rates of broad money and bank loans slowed a little in May, but that is mainly due to base effects. Furthermore, our reconstructed measure of M3 still increased by a relatively... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed on track for a September lift-off As Fed officials left their interest rate projections for this year unchanged, it appears that the FOMC is still on course for a September lift-off. The 0.63% median of those projections implies that... 17th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB & JOLTs surveys show labour market strength The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys illustrate that the bigger than expected gain in employment in May was no fluke. Labour market conditions are strengthening and wage growth will accelerate further. 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Which inflation measure should the Fed focus on? The Fed's preferred PCE measure of core inflation is being depressed by declines in the administered prices set by Congress for Medicare and Medicaid. In contrast, the CPI measure, which covers only... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) Broad money growth has slowed slightly, with the annual growth rate of our M3 measure falling to a six-month low of 5.6% in April. More importantly, however, the growth rate of bank loans continues to... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed acknowledges first-quarter slowdown The latest FOMC statement released today suggests that Fed officials still believe economic growth and inflation will rebound. But until they see evidence of such a rebound, which could take another... 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) With broad money growth expanding at close to 6% over the past year and bank loans growing at an even faster 8%, there is little evidence of a sustained slowdown in real economic growth or price... 20th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Wacky weather According to the National Climatic Data Center, we now know that the Northeast suffered its coldest winter ever this year. At the same time, the West Coast saw record high average temperatures. The... 10th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US recovery still firmly on track Rumours of the demise of the US economy have been greatly exaggerated. The run of weaker economic data hasn't shaken our belief that, now credit is flowing more freely and the fiscal drag has faded... 7th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen, Bernanke and the equilibrium real rate In an attempt to justify leaving the fed funds rate at near-zero until some time later this year, Fed Chair Janet Yellen last week hinted that she thought the current equilibrium (or neutral) real... 31st March 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The further acceleration in broad money growth in February is indicative of a strengthening real economic recovery that will eventually put more upward pressure on underlying inflation. The annual... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
