US Economics Update Temporary immigration ban highlights longer-term risk President Trump’s tweet announcing a temporary ban on immigration is most likely just a short-term tactic to fire up his base. But it is hard not to see this as the beginning of an even more nativist... 21st April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Is the Fed monetising the deficit? The scale of the Fed’s purchases of Treasury securities in the first few weeks of the pandemic, in addition to the sheer size of the broader expansion in its balance sheet, arguably suggests that the... 20th April 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update Paycheck protection program will reduce scarring The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) of forgivable small business loans has come too late to prevent the huge initial wave of layoffs, but will be more useful in helping less directly affected firms... 14th April 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update UI expansion to cushion blow from layoffs The significant increase in unemployment insurance payments included in the recent fiscal package means that many claimants could end up being paid close to what they previously earned. This suggests... 8th April 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Could the pandemic trigger another banking crisis? The coronavirus-related recession will lead to a marked increase in defaults on bank loans but, while that will hit earnings and justifies the sharp sell-off in banking stocks, the greatly improved... 7th April 2020 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Fed super-sizing its balance sheet The Fed’s balance sheet has already ballooned in size to $5.7trn, from just less than $4trn before the coronavirus pandemic struck, and that’s before the introduction of its new lending facilities and... 2nd April 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Initial Jobless Claims (w/e March 28th) This Update was originally sent to clients as a Rapid Response immediately after the data was released on 2nd April. The surge in initial jobless claims to a record high of 6,648,000 last week, from 3... 2nd April 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update New macro forecasts – Q2 GDP to fall at 40% pace With the number of COVID-19 cases in the US skyrocketing and a rising share of the population under lockdown, we need to revise our macro forecasts quite significantly: We now expect second-quarter... 25th March 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Congress steps up to the plate The $2trn stimulus package agreed by Congress will include a permanent fiscal expansion worth up to 5% of GDP and, in conjunction with the new lending facilities announced by the Fed, could channel up... 25th March 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Fed turns the easing up to 11 This Update was originally sent to clients as a Rapid Response immediately after the Fed’s policy statement on 23rd March. The Fed’s expansion of its open-ended QE, together with new measures to lend... 24th March 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Republican stimulus bill only a first step The Republican senators’ fiscal proposals would provide an immediate stimulus worth more than 2% of GDP and help to offset some of the damage to the economy from the coronavirus outbreak. That said... 20th March 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Fiscal support needed, but Fed still has more to do The Fed’s revival of financial crisis-era programs and a huge ramp-up in the pace of its open-ended Treasury purchases in recent days could help to stem some of the bleeding in financial markets. But... 19th March 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update GDP to plunge in Q2, but hit can still be contained The rapid escalation of measures to contain the coronavirus outbreak suggests that the economic damage will be even larger than we anticipated only a few days ago, and we are now pencilling in a 10%... 18th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed unleashes full crisis playbook The Fed’s decision to slash interest rates to near-zero won’t stop the economy falling into a recession, but the package of liquidity-boosting measures will help prevent credit markets seizing up... 16th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update What more can the Fed do? The Fed has already slashed interest rates and flooded the markets with liquidity, but it will have to go further in the coming weeks, with a return to near-zero interest rates and a resumption of... 13th March 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update More aggressive containment measures to hit growth The direct economic impact of President Donald Trump’s European travel ban will be limited, but we now anticipate more aggressive measures to contain the pandemic over the next few days – with... 12th March 2020 · 3 mins read
