UK Housing Market Outlook Weak transactions and falling house prices will be the story of 2011 We have raised our forecast of GDP growth for 2011 from 1% to 1.5%, but overall the economy will lose momentum and the labour market will weaken. Thus, the implications for the housing market are... 11th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook The lack of mortgage credit will weigh on house prices in 2011 (Q4 2010) The combination of a fading economic recovery, renewed rises in unemployment and a continued shortage of mortgage credit all suggest that there is little prospect of a meaningful recovery in housing... 18th October 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Low interest rates will not prevent a further drop in house prices (Q3 2010) Since the previous Analyst our forecasts for housing transactions have been shaved, reflecting the weaker-than-expected data in recent months. However, our house price forecasts appear to be on track... 14th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook The house price recovery will soon go into reverse (Q2 2010) The risks that house price falls would take longer to materialise than we had been expecting, and which we flagged in the previous Analyst, have been borne out. We have therefore cut our forecast for... 15th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook A second leg to the house price correction still lies ahead (Q1 2010) Our forecast that house prices will drop by 10% this year is unchanged. But, in view of the market’s surprising recovery last year, there is clearly risk that the current upward momentum in house... 27th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook House price falls to resume in 2010 (Q4 2009) This year’s rise in house prices, driven by an acute shortage of property for sale, does not look sustainable. We still think that prices will fall by between 35% and 40% from their peak. 16th October 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook House price declines will slow, but the correction will drag on for longer (Q3 2009) House price falls are slowing and the economic outlook no longer looks as gloomy as it did at the turn of the year. Yet, while the housing market correction may proceed more slowly than we envisaged... 16th July 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook No floor in sight for house prices (Q2 2009) There are tentative signs that activity levels in the housing market are bottoming out. Any recovery in activity is, however, unlikely to be sufficiently strong to prevent further house price falls... 20th April 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook The pace of house price falls will accelerate in 2009 (Q1 2009) There is little evidence to suggest that house prices are close to their floor. Recent data support our view that house prices will fall a further 20% this year before stabilising in early 2010. This... 14th January 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook The recession will accelerate the housing market correction (Q4 2008) The housing market correction is unfolding with unprecedented speed. Yet, with the economy heading for a recession lasting for at least two years, house price falls will intensify in 2009. 23rd October 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook House prices to fall by 35% (Q3 2008) Recent housing market news has been dire. With the economy also poised for three years of sub-trend growth, the housing market correction is likely to run onto in 2010. We have cut our forecasts. We... 16th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook The house price correction has begun; larger falls to come in 2009 (Q2 2008) Recent housing data suggest that although our forecast of a 5% fall in house prices this year is broadly on track, the risk of a weaker outcome has risen. We have also reduced our forecasts for... 22nd April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Housing market poised for two years of falling prices (Q1 2008) We have cut our house price forecasts from falls of 3% in both 2008 and 2009 to falls of 5% this year and 8% next. Data in the final quarter of 2007 revealed a rapidly cooling housing market and... 15th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook House price falls will become widespread in 2008 and 2009 We have cut our forecast for house price growth in 2008 from 0% to -3%. We also expect house prices to fall by a further 3% in 2009. Since the previous Analyst, credit conditions have tightened and... 24th October 2007 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Higher interest rates will hit transactions harder than house prices next year The latest data show few signs of a slowdown in the pace of economic growth and there has been little to suggest that the medium-term inflation pressures concerning the Monetary Policy Committee have... 20th July 2007 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Signs of a cooling market to gather pace in 2007H2 The upside risks to the interest rate outlook we highlighted in the previous edition of the Housing Market Analyst appear to be materialising. Firms have begun to rediscover a degree of pricing power... 1st May 2007 · 1 min read
