UK Economics Update Case for near-term hike fading Today’s no-change decision confirms that the majority of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) still sees no pressing need to tighten monetary policy. With the biggest fiscal squeeze in decades getting... 8th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) Growth of the Monetary Policy Committee’s favoured measure of the money supply has continued to pick up pace, but we doubt that this means that a strong pick-up in money spending is soon to come. 29th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Banks still in no position to lend much more Given that the Bank of England has been criticised for not shouting loudly enough about the risks of a banking crisis, the gloomy tone of its latest Financial Stability Report (FSR) is perhaps... 25th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Budget squeeze on household finances to weigh on house prices Fears that a rise in capital gains tax would rapidly destabilise the fragile house price recovery appear to have been overdone. But the scale of the fiscal squeeze announced by the Chancellor today... 22nd June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Budget squeeze on household finances to weigh on house prices Fears that a rise in capital gains tax would rapidly destabilise the fragile house price recovery appear to have been overdone. But the scale of the fiscal squeeze announced by the Chancellor today... 22nd June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK Budget Checklist This checklist is intended to help clients keep track of the important measures and numbers announced during the Chancellor’s Budget speech at 12.30pm and to provide some instant context. 22nd June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What if the emergency Budget raises VAT? There is clearly a strong chance that Tuesday’s emergency Budget contains a rise in VAT. While this might make the MPC’s job a bit trickier, we doubt that it would push the Committee into raising... 17th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What if the emergency Budget raises VAT? There is clearly a strong chance that Tuesday’s emergency Budget contains a rise in VAT. While this might make the MPC’s job a bit trickier, we doubt that it would push the Committee into raising... 17th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update OBR forecasts do not point to a soft Budget The lower path of public borrowing projected by the Office for Budget Responsibility might seem to relieve some of the pressure for an additional fiscal tightening in next week’s Budget. But we don’t... 14th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update OBR forecasts do not point to a soft Budget The lower path of public borrowing projected by the Office for Budget Responsibility might seem to relieve some of the pressure for an additional fiscal tightening in next week’s Budget. But we don’t... 14th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rising inflation unlikely to scare MPC into rate hikes The lower path of public borrowing projected by the Office for Budget Responsibility might seem to relieve some of the pressure for an additional fiscal tightening in next week’s Budget. But we don’t... 10th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK faces a tougher task than Canada to cut deficit The Canadian experience of the mid-1990s has been taken by many as evidence that the UK’s large government deficit can be brought under control fairly easily and without undermining the broader... 8th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The broad money supply has finally started to grow at the rates the MPC was aiming for when it began its policy of quantitative easing (QE). However, we are yet to see a decent pick-up in bank lending... 2nd June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Spending cuts just the tip of the iceberg The planned efficiency savings detailed by the new Government today are just the tip of the iceberg. Much bigger cuts, alongside hefty tax increases, will be needed to bring the budget deficit down. 24th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update OBR details underline likelihood of tax hikes George Osborne’s presentation today of the new Office for Budget Responsibility as an answer to the previous Government’s habitual over-optimism on the economy and the public finances reinforces our... 17th May 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update OBR could prompt bigger budget tax hikes The fact that the forthcoming emergency budget will incorporate economic and fiscal forecasts produced by the new Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) increases the likelihood that it will include... 13th May 2010 · 1 min read
