UK Economics Housing mini-boom will temporarily boost consumer spending The recent rebound in housing transactions and jump in house prices will boost consumption over the coming months, but the boost will only be temporary. Once the stamp duty holiday expires at the end... 14th September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Brexit is back The financial markets have woken up with a bang to the possibility that the Brexit transition period ends on 31st December without a deal. That could set back the UK’s economic recovery from the... 10th September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Outlook for recovery darkening The economy’s impressive initial recovery from the coronavirus recession will soon fade. That was always going to happen naturally once most sectors had reopened. But the prospect of some tax rises in... 7th September 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Will the Bank of England change its remit? While the Bank of England might not follow the Fed and change its inflation remit, we doubt this will stop it from significantly loosening policy and from keeping it loose for a very long time. 3rd September 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Back to school boost for the economy The reopening of schools this week could give a boost to GDP of around 5% as output in the education sector returns to normal and parents who have had to provide childcare get back to work. 3rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Surge in retail sales overstating the wider rebound The recovery in total consumer spending is almost certainly lagging well behind the surge in retail sales. And although the early signs of a recovery have been positive, a coming wave of unemployment... 27th August 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Surprising sterling resilience to Brexit unlikely to last Despite the news that the latest round of UK-EU Brexit negotiations ended in deadlock last Friday, sterling has remained remarkably stable. This suggests that while there may be some small upside for... 27th August 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update How reliable are the high frequency indicators? With the so-called “easy” part of the economic recovery probably coming to an end, the next leg is likely to be slower, particularly if like overseas, the UK suffers a renewed surge in virus cases and... 26th August 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Recent lull in business insolvencies the calm before the storm The recent lull in business insolvencies will almost certainly be followed by a wave of businesses going bust as government support is withdrawn. This will contribute to a surge in unemployment over... 25th August 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update What to make of diverging unemployment rates in the UK and US While the success of the UK’s job furlough scheme has prevented the unemployment rate from rising as far as it has in the US, an increase in UK unemployment has been delayed rather than avoided... 20th August 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Quarantine is not the source of the tourism industry’s woes The sudden imposition of quarantine on people arriving from France highlights the risks involved in foreign travel while the virus is still circulating. This uncertainty is likely to mean it takes a... 19th August 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Big discounts boost eating out, but consumers still cautious The success of the Eat Out to Help Out (EOHO) scheme suggests that fears about the virus are not preventing activity. But as meals out only seem to be popular due to a heavy discount, consumers are... 11th August 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Number of people on furlough already down by half By July, we think that around 4 million people had already left the government’s job furlough scheme and 5 million remained on the scheme. That fall is faster than we had expected but does not change... 10th August 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Three possible shapes of a second wave We don’t think that the recent resurgence in the coronavirus in certain parts of the UK makes the economic outlook any weaker than we already thought. But more widespread outbreaks would either slow... 7th August 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update MPC’s words are much more dovish than its numbers The Monetary Policy Committee left its interest rate and quantitative easing policies unchanged today and its new projections appear to suggest that no further loosening is required. But its dovish... 6th August 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Risk of the virus dealing a second blow to the economy A surge in new domestic coronavirus cases is the biggest downside risk to our forecast that it will take two years for the economy to return to its pre-crisis peak. It could mean that the recovery... 28th July 2020 · 3 mins read
