UK Economics Update Lower food prices will help to drag inflation down next year The sharp fall in the oil price in recent weeks has overshadowed the impact that the recent easing in global wholesale food prices is likely to have on inflation. While the lower level of wholesale... 8th August 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Lower food prices will help to drag inflation down next year The sharp fall in the oil price in recent weeks has overshadowed the impact that the recent easing in global wholesale food prices is likely to have on inflation. While the lower level of wholesale... 8th August 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Recession risks keep MPC on hold The growing likelihood of a recession, plus the recent falls in oil and commodity prices, kept the MPC’s finger off the interest rate trigger for another month. We continue to expect rates to be... 7th August 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Recession risks keep MPC on hold The growing likelihood of a recession, plus the recent falls in oil and commodity prices, kept the MPC’s finger off the interest rate trigger for another month. We continue to expect rates to be... 7th August 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Productivity slowdown won’t stop employment falling The recession that looks likely does not have to be accompanied by falling employment - firms could just let productivity (i.e. output per worker) suffer instead. Indeed, employers have been reluctant... 6th August 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Productivity slowdown won’t stop employment falling The recession that looks likely does not have to be accompanied by falling employment - firms could just let productivity (i.e. output per worker) suffer instead. Indeed, employers have been reluctant... 6th August 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Northern Rock injection yet another fiscal worry The Government’s decision to inject extra capital into Northern Rock means that UK taxpayers will become shareholders in a troubled mortgage lender during what looks set to be the severest downturn in... 5th August 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Utility hikes may mean that inflation peaks earlier The news that British Gas today became the second utility supplier to raise its prices means that inflation is likely to rise further and faster than we previously expected. But the silver lining is... 30th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Re-emergence of pension fund deficits threatens investment Recent financial market developments have pushed corporate pension funds back into deficit, further constraining the resources available for firms to invest. 30th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Companies running out of cash The further sharp contraction in the amount of cash held on deposit by companies in June is yet another sign that the economic downturn is taking its toll on the corporate sector, suggesting that it... 29th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update When will the MPC be able to sound the all clear on inflation? It might only be a few months before the MPC can conclude that the twin threats of rising wages growth and rising core inflation are not going to materialise. We still think there is a decent chance... 22nd July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fiscal reform will simply delay tax increases The Government’s decision to “reform” its fiscal rules will help it to avoid deepening the economic downturn by raising taxes over the next year or two. But it does not alter the fact that a major... 18th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household disposable income to post smallest rise since 1982 Although unemployment is now rising, there is perhaps some comfort in the fact that the sharp rise in unemployment in the early 1990s had a fairly limited impact on real household income growth... 17th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household disposable income to post smallest rise since 1982 Although unemployment is now rising, there is perhaps some comfort in the fact that the sharp rise in unemployment in the early 1990s had a fairly limited impact on real household income growth... 17th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Interest rate expectations have much further to fall The markets have once again started to anticipate cuts in UK interest rates. But if our expectations of the severity of the downturn in the economy prove even half right, rate expectations have a lot... 16th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The labour market: now vs. the early 1990s The fall in employment that we expect over the next couple of years is only a fraction of the drop seen in the early 1990s. But with the workforce unlikely to contract as it did back then, the rises... 16th July 2008 · 1 min read
