UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Labour Market (Jun./Jul. 2023)

The fall in employment in the three months to June and further rise in the unemployment rate will be welcomed by the Bank of England as a sign labour market conditions are cooling. But with wage...

15th August 2023 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK GDP (Jun./Q2 2023)

The 0.5% m/m rise in real GDP in June and 0.2% q/q increase in Q2 (CE, BoE, consensus 0.1% q/q) confirmed that a recession has so far been avoided. But with much of the drag from higher interest rates...

11th August 2023 · 4 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

Bank of England Policy Announcement (3rd Aug. 2023)

3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Money & Credit (Jun. 2023)

Higher interest rates continued to gradually feed through to weaker activity in bank lending in June, particularly in the housing market. We suspect this effect will intensify as the Bank of England...

31st July 2023 · 4 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jul. 2023)

July’s flash activity PMIs suggest that the resilience in activity has eased further and that domestic inflationary pressures are starting to slow faster. That supports our view that the Bank of...

24th July 2023 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Public Finances (Jun. 2023)

June’s public finances figures revealed an unexpected undershoot of the OBR’s forecast for public borrowing, bringing some cheer for the government on a day when it has lost two by-elections. But with...

21st July 2023 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Retail Sales (Jun. 2023)

The further increase in retail sales volumes in June suggests the recent resilience in economic activity hasn’t yet faded. But our view that interest rates will rise further, from 5.00% now to a peak...

21st July 2023 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Consumer Prices (Jun. 2023)

The falls in CPI inflation from 8.7% in May to 7.9% in June (consensus 8.2%, BoE May MPR 7.9%) and core inflation from 7.1% to 6.9% (consensus 7.1%, CE 7.0%) are unlikely to be enough to prevent the...

19th July 2023 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK GDP (May 2023)

The 0.1% m/m fall in real GDP in May as bad as it looked as some of it was due to the extra bank holiday for the King’s Coronation. Indeed, real GDP is on track to rise by around 0.1% q/q in Q2 as a...

13th July 2023 · 4 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Labour Market (May/Jun. 2023)

The labour market became less tight in May and there are some signs of momentum in wage growth slowing a bit. But with wage growth still well above the levels consistent with the 2% inflation target...

11th July 2023 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK GDP (Q1 2023 Final)

The final Q1 2023 GDP data confirms that the economy steered clear of a recession at the start of 2023. But with around 60% of the drag from higher interest rates yet to be felt, we still think the...

30th June 2023 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Money & Credit (May 2023)

Higher interest rates continued to weigh on bank lending in May, particularly in the housing market. This effect will only intensify as the Bank of England raises interest rates from 5.00% now to a...

29th June 2023 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Flash PMIs (Jun. 2023)

June’s flash activity PMIs won’t do much to ease the Bank of England’s inflation fears, which suggests that yesterday’s interest rate rise to 5.00% won’t be the last. Our forecast is for rates to rise...

23rd June 2023 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Retail Sales (May 2023)

The further rebound in retail sales volumes in May suggests the recent resilience in economic activity hasn’t yet faded. But we think it’s too soon to conclude the rebound in retail sales will be...

23rd June 2023 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

Bank of England Policy Announcement (22nd June)

22nd June 2023 · 2 mins read