UK Commercial Property Update CBI/PwC financial services survey provides little comfort for offices Monday’s CBI/PwC Financial Services Survey received a reasonable amount of media coverage due to the more upbeat tone of its results. At first glance, that might appear to suggest an imminent upturn... 1st July 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Bank of England Financial Stability Report, June 2009 Property markets were not a key feature of the Bank of England’s latest Financial Stability Report (FSR). However, the focus of the report, on tighter regulation in future, adds to the case for... 26th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Asset protection scheme unlikely materially to boost foreclosures It has recently been put to us by a few clients that, counter to the Government’s best intentions, the Asset Protection Scheme (APS) will actually encourage lenders to foreclose on existing commercial... 18th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Economic forecast revisions: net effect on property is negligible Yesterday we revised up our economic forecasts. (See various Updates, available to clients on our website, for more details.) Although we still expect growth to remain weak, at the margin, the new... 9th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Corporate bonds comparison suggests property not necessarily cheap Tenant default and loss of rental income are now perhaps the foremost concerns for commercial property investors. As such, it is far from clear that property is undervalued, even though yields are now... 8th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update If prime yields have peaked, how much more might the average rise? Anecdotal evidence that commercial property yields have peaked is steadily accumulating. To be sure, it is only a very narrow and select portion of the market in which yields are reported to have... 21st May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update De Montfort Lending Review, full-year 2008 Broadly speaking, the De Montfort review for 2008 supports our long-held view that commercial property lending will remain weak for a prolonged period. The sanguine attitude of lenders towards... 15th May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Falls in London office development pipelines: an alternative view All else equal, the recent falls in office development pipelines in Central London would be positive for the outlook for rental values. However, take-up has fallen at an even faster rate, meaning that... 14th May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How significant is the upturn in commercial property sentiment? Sentiment towards commercial property has improved of late and some anecdotal evidence suggests that yields have stabilised. However, to date, the improvement in sentiment appears modest and the... 6th May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Does a fast start to the rental downturn imply a quicker recovery? To date, the recession has triggered a larger fall in commercial property rental values than past experience suggests is typical. The abrupt drop in financial and business services employment, with... 24th April 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Property and the 2009 Budget - disappointment dominates This Budget was a holding operation which left the really tough decisions required to sort out the public finances to be taken by whoever is Chancellor after the next election. The tax increases and... 22nd April 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Industrial rents could fall most in Midlands and Northern England We expect all-industrial rental values to decline by 9% this year and by a further 13% in 2010. However, the experience of the early 1990s suggests that the worst performing regions could see annual... 16th April 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update West End rents suffer most in 2008; the outlook is even bleaker We have long expected commercial property rental values to fall and, in our view, the decline of almost 1.5%y/y in 2008 is just the tip of the iceberg. With GDP set to shrink by 3% this year and by 1%... 3rd February 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update December not the turning point for investment market activity Our view is that the sharp rise in the value of commercial property deals in December does not herald markedly more buoyant investment market activity in 2009. Admittedly, activity may lift a bit this... 15th January 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Another step towards zero Today’s cut in interest rates to record low levels confirms that, for now at least, monetary policy remains focused on reducing the cost of money. We still expect rates to get down to zero, or very... 8th January 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update De Montfort Lending Review, mid-year 2008 The latest De Montfort University report on bank lending to commercial property, if anything, only adds to the gloom hanging over the sector. What’s more, since it relates only to the first half of... 18th December 2008 · 1 min read
