UK Commercial Property Update Can we trust the message from real estate equity prices? Trends in real estate equity prices point to gains in IPD all-property capital values for 2011 as a whole of about 10%. That is far too optimistic. But to the extent that real estate equities are... 21st July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Why has industrial property income fared so poorly? To us, the prospects for consumer spending on leisure services remain pretty good and anecdotal evidence certainly suggests that institutional buyers are increasingly targeting leisure property. We... 16th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Outperformance by leisure services may not last much longer For now, leisure services operators are managing to combine positive sales volumes growth with price increases. That points to a positive near-term outlook for leisure property rental values... 14th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update A surge in City and West End office rents remains unlikely The latest CBI/PwC Financial Services Survey contained a positive message on job creation. But despite below-average vacancy rates and very limited new supply pipelines in both the City and West End... 6th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Industrial sub-sector yield gap more likely to close than widen Data on tenant failure probabilities from the Fidelity Income Risk Monitor (FIRM) may help to explain why distribution warehouse yields are currently lower than standard industrial property. However... 22nd June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will West End office rents outpace the City this year? The recent data-flow suggests that West End office rental value growth for 2011 as a whole could be considerably higher than the City. That would be in contrast with both our own and the consensus... 2nd June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will the feared, fresh slump in non-prime capital values be avoided? Over the next 12 to 18 months, non-prime capital values in some sectors and regions may well continue to drift lower. But the mismatch between the weight of equity targeting the UK market and the... 12th May 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Are Central London office yields too low? In our view, the historically large yield differentials between Central London and regional offices can be justified by relative rental growth prospects. But that judgement is finely balanced and it... 20th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Have institutions' property allocations passed their trough? Over the next few years, it seems likely that UK investing institutions will buck the long-term trend and raise their allocations to property. Any increase in proportional terms, however, would... 15th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Is West End retail's outperformance set to end? West End retail property remained a star performer in 2010. But relative rents in this prime segment are now at a record high while relative yields are at a record low. Both suggest that Central... 13th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Cautious view on Central London office rents still looks right The tight supply of available space in Central London office markets is likely to boost rental values this year. But there has recently been a pretty steady flow of less encouraging demand data... 5th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Budget 2011 - No short-term fixes for property Given the degree of overvaluation in the residential market and the fragile economic backdrop, we are not convinced of the merits, or the likely success, of the Budget’s attempt to stimulate first... 23rd March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Financial and business services sector jobs (Q4) Financial & business services (FBS) sector jobs edged up in Q4, though year-on-year growth is yet to recover to levels consistent with strong and sustained gains in City office rental values. We... 16th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Weight of equity an upside risk to commercial property prices Our central view is that IPD all-property capital values will decline by a modest 2% this year. But with the public sector spending cuts yet to start in earnest, there are plenty of downside risks to... 14th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Is the case for London hotels as clear-cut as it seems? The outlook for hotel property total returns over 2011/12 is widely considered to be better in London than in the regions. It is hard to argue with that assessment. However, there are reasons to be... 10th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How much weight should we put on real estate equity price rally? There is not an automatic link between real estate equity prices and price changes in the physical property market. However, while the prospect of a faltering economic recovery this year still... 8th March 2011 · 1 min read
