UK Commercial Property Update Will shopping centre rental values continue to underperform? The recent underperformance by shopping centre rental values is unlikely to persist throughout 2012. But this does not mean that we envisage a recovery. Instead, we think that where shopping centres... 2nd December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What does the fall in export orders mean for industrial rents? The order books of UK manufacturing firms have taken a knock over the past few months and the steadily weakening prospects for the euro-zone suggest that there is worse to come. All else equal, this... 17th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Has the worst passed for public sector cuts to London office demand? To us, it seems likely that the worst of the effects of fiscal tightening on public sector demand for Central London offices has not yet passed. To be fair, the public sector probably accounts for... 11th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update IPD yields likely to drift higher in 2012 We do not think that the increase in average property yields of around 80bps that has been recorded on the transactions-based Property Archive data over the past nine months will be mirrored fully by... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Outperformance by retail property income unlikely to last Despite the fragile economic backdrop and in contrast to the office and industrial sectors, retail property landlords have recently enjoyed positive income growth. In our view, however, with consumer... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Income streams unlikely to be immune to weak economic backdrop Over the next 12 to 18 months, we now expect IPD all-property rental values to decline. And there was little in the latest Lease Events Review from Strutt & Parker (S&P) and IPD to suggest that the... 21st October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Economic prospects even weaker; property prices set to fall in 2012 The economic outlook continues to deteriorate pretty rapidly and, reflecting downgrades to our macro forecasts, we have now cut our expectations for UK commercial property returns. Rather than... 20th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Euro crisis to tip the UK back into recession The euro-zone debt crisis is likely to have severe adverse effects on the UK economy at a time when domestic contractionary forces are building. We now expect UK GDP growth to slow from about 0.8%... 18th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Little reason to expect new QE to have major impact on property Commercial property is no longer obviously undervalued and, rather than a shortage of cash, it is a lack of suitable buildings available to buy that is currently the biggest problem for many investors... 11th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Weaker financial services sector points to soft office rent outlook Compared with recent quarters, the tone of the latest CBI/PwC Financial Services Survey was pretty weak. Of course, given the turmoil of the past few months, that is no major surprise. Even so, today... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Bond yields of 2% over the medium term will support property Last week, we revised down our forecasts for 10-year government bond yields, the benchmark riskfree rate for commercial property, from 2.5% at end-2011 – and right through to end-2013 – to just 2%... 20th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Real retail rental value correction on track to be largest ever In recent months, retail property rental value trends – which were already pretty weak – have taken a turn for the worse. What’s more, the recent data-flow, such as weak retail sales and problematic... 17th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Transactions may bear the brunt of any drop in risk appetite The recent outperformance by lower grade London offices is unlikely to be repeated in the near-term by secondary property in other sectors. Indeed, over the coming quarters, it is more likely that... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update More evidence that property yields have found a floor In our view, there is little reason to think that over the coming quarters commercial property capital values will continue to see yield-driven increases. Indeed, one general theme running through the... 25th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will refurbishment activity improve further? On IPD figures, there is only patchy evidence of a pick-up in refurbishment activity. Admittedly, by covering only institutional grade property, these data may understate the true extent to which... 19th August 2011 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Prime retail property not immune to further consumer spending falls Arguments that further “flight to quality” will insulate the landlords of prime retail property from the effects of a renewed drop in consumer spending have a strong intuitive appeal. But there must... 12th August 2011 · 1 min read
