Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly N. Africa gas deals, Gulf tightening, Lebanon and the IMF Europe’s plans to wean itself off Russian gas could benefit producers in North Africa – and Egypt in particular. Elsewhere, stronger inflation in MENA and rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have... 14th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egyptian pound, Kuwait political turmoil, Tunisia election The Egyptian pound has remained relatively stable since last month’s devaluation, but we think policymakers need to move to a more flexible exchange rate and allow the currency to weaken further... 7th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Curtains close on World Expo, Gulf support for Egypt The World Expo in Dubai closes its doors today and, while it has provided a near-term fillip to the economy, we are concerned that it will leave a legacy of overcapacity in key sectors that reignites... 31st March 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly A busy week in Egypt, Oman loosens the purse strings Policy announcements in Egypt this week, including a devaluation of the pound, have been pinned on the spill-overs from the war in Ukraine, but they have actually been some time in the making and may... 24th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iran nuclear deal, wiring shortage a fillip to North Africa The Iran nuclear deal appears to be on the brink of being revived and, were that to happen, the lifting of sanctions would provide a major direct boost to Iran’s economy. Increased oil output could... 17th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Russian energy sanctions, non-Gulf external strains build The US and UK embargoes on Russian energy exports could open the door for the Gulf countries to raise oil production more quickly and implement their long-term strategies of capturing market share... 10th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+, Suez Canal toll hike, Moroccan drought Oil prices have risen even further since yesterday's OPEC+ meeting as investors’ concerns about disruptions to oil supplies from Russia mount. If sanctions are imposed on Russia's energy exports... 3rd March 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly What does the Russia-Ukraine crisis mean for MENA? This morning Russia has launched an invasion of Ukraine and, for oil producers in the Gulf, the further rise in oil prices is positive for their economies. But for others in the region, the... 24th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco-PIF equity transfer, Russia-Ukraine crisis The transfer of a 4% stake in Aramco from the Saudi government to the Public Investment Fund will not diversify government revenues away from oil as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman would like to... 17th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil policy, Aramco share sale, Tunisian politics Comments from Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman suggest that the Kingdom’s medium-term oil policy will include raising output to capture market share and not leave large... 10th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly UAE corporation tax, Egypt-EU trade spat, OPEC+ The UAE’s plan to introduce a corporation tax next year will help to diversify public revenues away from oil and may provide Dubai’s government with greater resources to step in if corporate debt... 3rd February 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt privatisation, Russia-Ukraine, Oman subsidies Further reports that Egypt’s government is stepping up the pace of structural reforms are promising for the country’s longer-term growth prospects. For the Gulf economies, Russia-Ukraine tensions... 27th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil prices, UAE drone attack, Gulf monetary tightening The recent upwards revision to our oil price forecast means that the window for looser fiscal policy in the Gulf will remain open for a little longer than we anticipated. One of the factors driving... 20th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil and Gulf fiscal policy, Egypt joins GBI-EM, Tunisia We think that the recent rally in oil prices is likely to be short lived and, as prices fall back, the window for governments in the Gulf to loosen fiscal policy will shut. Elsewhere, Egypt’s... 13th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ meeting, Gulf tightens restrictions, Egypt budget This week’s OPEC+ meeting turned into a fairly straightforward affair with the group raising output as planned, but if we’re right in expecting oil prices to drop back, the window for governments in... 6th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi budget, Fed and the Gulf, Tunisian politics Saudi Arabia’s 2022 Budget revealed that the government plans to cut spending in order to run a budget surplus for the first time since 2013. But the true fiscal stance is being muddied by an... 16th December 2021 · 5 mins read
