Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi credit growth to remain subdued Credit growth in Saudi Arabia has started to pick up and, with monetary conditions set to be loosened in line with the US, it is likely to strengthen further over the next couple of years. That said... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What the rise in US-Iran tensions means for the Gulf Mounting friction between the US and Iran is likely to cause Iran’s economic downturn to deepen but, on its own, this doesn’t pose a major problem for the Gulf economies. The bigger threat is that... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Balance sheets improving, but vulnerabilities remain The health of balance sheets across the Middle East and North Africa have come under the spotlight in recent months. We are most concerned about some of the smaller economies, particularly Lebanon. 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi budget position likely to deteriorate Saudi Arabia recorded a budget surplus in Q1 but, if oil prices drop back as we expect, the fiscal position is likely to deteriorate. This won’t cause significant balance sheet strains, although... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi slowdown has further to run After reaching a three-year high in Q4 2018, GDP growth in Saudi Arabia has slowed at the start of this year as the drag from oil output cuts has more than offset a pick-up in activity in the non-oil... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Widening Moroccan CA deficit not a cause for alarm Morocco’s current account deficit ballooned to its largest level in four years in Q4, but we think that this is temporary and that the shortfall will narrow this year. 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bouteflexit: what next for Algeria? The decision by Algeria’s President Bouteflika to step down is likely to result in a long and potentially messy transition. At the very least, economic growth will weaken and the chances of a severe... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi slowdown to be steeper than most expect Saudi Arabia’s economy expanded at its fastest pace in three years in Q4 of last year, but our GDP Tracker points to a renewed slowdown at the start of 2019. 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian central bank pauses easing cycle The Egyptian central bank’s decision today to keep interest rates unchanged (rather than cut rates) appears to have been a result of the jump in inflation in February. But if we’re right that... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai: solid growth, but debt risks linger Economic growth in Dubai should hold up well at 3.8-4.5% over the next couple of years due to a boost from the 2020 World Expo. Loan restructurings undertaken in 2014 have masked the Emirate’s debt... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Algeria’s protests and the impact on the rest of MENA Any economic fallout from the protests in Algeria will have a negligible impact on the rest of the MENA region. The greater risk stems from political contagion. Past experience suggests that... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Algeria after Bouteflika Algeria’s President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s decision not to seek a fifth term in office is unlikely to spell the end of the political saga. Whoever eventually takes over will inherit an economy that... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Rate cuts still on the cards in Egypt The jump in Egyptian inflation in February has reduced the chances that the central bank will loosen policy at this month’s MPC meeting, but subdued core price pressures and strong capital inflows... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy’s strong end to 2018 already fading Saudi Arabia’s economy appears to have expanded by around 4.5% y/y in Q4 of last year, but it is now almost certainly slowing. Our forecast for GDP growth of 1.3% this year lies towards the bottom of... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lessons for Algeria from the Arab Spring The protests in Algeria have inevitably spurred comparisons with the Arab Spring uprisings in 2011 and the experience from that period is that economic growth will slow and balance of payments strains... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Algeria: protests add to headwinds facing economy The recent protests in Algeria threaten to worsen the country’s economic problems. We already expected sharp falls in the dinar and much weaker economic growth over the next couple of years, but the... 25th February 2019 · 1 min read
