Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s easing cycle has further to run The 100bp interest rate cut delivered by Egypt’s central bank today is likely to be followed by further easing in the coming months. While we expect inflation to edge up in the near term, it will... 14th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar’s banking risks re-emerging The boom in credit in Qatar since the turn of the year has caused a renewed build-up of vulnerabilities in the banking sector. Severe balance sheets strains should be avoided, but the recent pace of... 13th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: inflation to stay weak, more rate cuts on the way The decline in Egyptian inflation to a 14-year low of 3.1% y/y in October raises the risk that the central bank lowers interest rates by more than the 100bp that we have pencilled in for Thursday’s... 11th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How credible are the region’s dollar pegs? Many of the non-oil producing countries in the region have tended to support their dollar pegs by maintaining a level of FX reserves sufficient to cover the monetary base. In Egypt and Jordan... 7th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The economic implications of the Aramco IPO The upcoming sale of a stake in Saudi Aramco would probably make the government less inclined to implement fresh austerity. The long-term impact on the Saudi economy will depend on whether this leads... 4th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economic downturn deepens Our Tracker suggests that the impact of oil production cuts caused the Saudi economy to contract in Q3. And output probably fell at a steeper pace in Q4. 28th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon quickly approaching a crunch point The protests in Lebanon (and policymakers’ response) underline that pushing through the austerity needed to stabilise the public finances is politically impossible. With large debt repayments due over... 21st October 2019 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Kuwait’s weak economic performance to continue Economic growth in Kuwait is likely to remain sluggish in the coming years due to the impact of oil production cuts as well as ongoing tensions between the government and parliament, which will... 15th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia’s election outturn threatens policy paralysis Tunisia’s new president will face the immediate challenge of a fractured parliament and, amid what are set to be arduous coalition talks, policy paralysis is likely to set in. The country’s large... 14th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi downturn to deepen Our GDP Tracker suggests that the intensifying drag from oil production cuts caused the Saudi economy to slow even further at the start of Q3. Things are likely to get even worse in the coming months... 9th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai’s economic struggles to continue Dubai’s economy slowed in 2018 and the activity data for this year suggest that growth has stayed weak. The 2020 World Expo will provide a fillip to the economy, but a number of other factors mean... 2nd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: weak inflation spurs another aggressive rate cut The Central Bank of Egypt shrugged off the market volatility following recent protests across the country and lowered interest rates by another 100bp, to 13.25%, at today’s meeting. So long as the... 26th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: protests and the economic impact Protests in Egypt over the past few days have ignited concerns that the country is on the cusp of another period of political upheaval. Past experience suggests that this would be disruptive for the... 23rd September 2019 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Assessing the impact of the Abqaiq attacks There is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the attacks on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq oil facility but, so long as the worst of the disruption to oil supplies lasts no more than a few days, the hit to... 16th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar: close to a turning point, but growth to disappoint The slowdown in Qatar’s economy over the past decade should come to an end in the coming quarters as the start of production at the Barzan gas project boosts growth in the hydrocarbon sector. But... 11th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update New Saudi oil minister may push to extend OPEC+ deal The change at the helm of the Saudi energy ministry raises the chances that the current OPEC+ output deal is extended beyond its current expiry date of March next year, which would probably require... 9th September 2019 · 4 mins read
