Latin America Economics Update How is growth shaping up in Latin America? It was beginning to feel like somebody had turned the clock back twelve months. With the first quarter of 2012 bringing a renewed sense of calm to global markets and a rebound in activity across the... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Brazilian rates? The decision by the Central Bank of Brazil last night to cut interest rates by 75bps to 9% was widely expected. Instead, the critical issue for investors is whether this marks the end of the current... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile, Peru signal near-term rate change unlikely Both Chile and Peru kept interest rates unchanged in April and signalled that moves in either direction are unlikely in the near-term. Further ahead, if we are right in expecting the global economic... 18th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Credit growth still uncomfortably strong The recent slowdown in Brazilian bank lending highlights the unsustainable nature of rapid credit growth in parts of Latin America. Credit risks are greatest in Argentina and Venezuela, while the... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil returns to (unbalanced) growth Having stagnated over the second half of 2011, the early signs are that Brazil’s economy grew by around 1% q/q in the first quarter of this year. But while Brazil’s return to growth is clearly good... 13th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Balanced growth suggests Mexico will continue to outperform While Brazilian GDP growth has outstripped that of Mexico in recent years, it has been very unbalanced. That has left Mexico better placed to weather any external shocks. As a result, we expect Mexico... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean economy not yet out of the woods As the most open and commodity-dependent of the major Latin American economies, Chile benefited from an improvement in global conditions in Q1. The road ahead will not be a smooth one however and, if... 5th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update YPF just another scapegoat for failures of Argentine model Rumours that Argentina’s largest energy company, YPF, is on the brink of being nationalised have seen the company’s share price plummet and sovereign risk premia spike over the past few days. Not only... 5th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Price controls are not the answer to Venezuelan inflation On the face of it, news that Venezuelan inflation is falling seems to support President Chavez’s claims that price controls will tame inflation. In reality, though, they are not the long-term solution... 3rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican survey data strong, but rates could still fall this year The latest survey data suggest that the Mexican economy may have expanded by an impressive 1.2% q/q in Q1. Even so, with the risks to growth and inflation to the downside, policymakers have recently... 3rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Better PMI won’t prompt ceasefire in Brazil’s “currency war” The manufacturing PMI survey suggests that after a torrid 2011, Brazilian industry stabilised in the first quarter of this year. But in truth the link between the manufacturing PMI and actual output... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico Election Watch: Will Peña Nieto push through reforms? The Mexican presidential election race formally begins today and the latest polls suggest that the PRI’s Enrique Peña Nieto is likely to triumph in July’s vote. But while Mr. Peña Nieto has identified... 30th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Uruguayan rates on hold as economy begins to cool Uruguay’s Central Bank (BCU) kept interest rates at 8.75% last night but maintained a hawkish tone on inflation. Based on our outlook for growth to slow by more than most anticipate this year... 30th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Jump in oil prices is a net benefit for Latin America Latin America is one of the few regions to have benefitted from the $25pb jump in oil prices over the past six months or so: higher prices provide a prop to regional growth and, for now at least, the... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine Q4 slowdown is a sign of things to come Official GDP data continue to overstate the health of Argentina’s economy and we estimate that growth slowed to 4.5% y/y in Q4. The current economic model is reaching its limits, and with little... 27th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: New BCRA Charter is a licence to print money The latest changes to Argentina’s Central Bank Charter will pave the way for further monetisation of a deteriorating fiscal balance. As such, any remaining hopes that the Fernández government is about... 23rd March 2012 · 1 min read
