Latin America Economics Update Brazilian inflation pushed up by food prices Although Brazilian inflation accelerated in September, the pick-up was driven by food prices. With the economy now growing at a sustainable rate, we expect the headline rate of inflation to remain at... 7th October 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update More bad news on Mexico's recovery September’s IMEF survey brought further evidence that Mexico’s recovery is starting to slow. We expect growth to dip to just 2.5% next year and interest rates to remain at their current record low of... 5th October 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil Election Watch: Blow for Dilma as race goes to wire Brazil’s presidential election sprang into life yesterday after Dilma Rousseff failed to gain the 50% of votes needed to secure an outright victory in the first round of voting. She remains the... 4th October 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil on course for a weaker Q3 Today’s raft of data brought further evidence that the recent strength of the real is squeezing Brazilian manufacturers. With the Central Bank now much more relaxed about the outlook for inflation... 1st October 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of Brazil’s 'currency war' Last night’s warning by the Brazilian Finance Minister, Guido Mantega, that an ‘international currency war’ has broken out has grabbed some predictable headlines. We discussed the issue of rapid... 28th September 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update President Chavez's popularity starts to wane This weekend’s elections provide the strongest evidence yet that Venezuela’s economic woes have begun to dent President Chavez’s popularity. All eyes are now on the 2012 presidential elections and... 27th September 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian GDP growth is better than it looks Colombian Q2 GDP growth came in well below consensus, but in line with our forecast of 4.5% y/y. While global headwinds could cause the pace of growth to slow to around 3.0% in 2011, the mediumterm... 23rd September 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Banks in good health, but keep an eye on Brazilian credit risks Latin America’s banking sector remains in good shape and robust credit growth should continue to support the region’s impressive recovery for a while yet. But while the outlook for Latin America’s... 23rd September 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Treading carefully After a rapid rebound from last year’s recession, it seems that growth in Latin America is now starting to ease to a more sustainable pace. Monetary tightening has further to run in Chile and Peru... 20th September 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: More interest rate hikes to come in the near-term The Central Bank of Chile (CBC) last night hiked interest rates by 50bps to 2.5%, as expected. In the near-term, the strong pace of growth means that policymakers will probably continue to raise rates... 17th September 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: BANREP intervention to stabilise peso, for now The Central Bank of Colombia (BANREP) this afternoon announced that it will resume market intervention to stem the appreciation of the peso. History shows that this may be successful in preventing the... 15th September 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian consumers shift down a gear Brazilian consumers made a weaker than expected start to Q3, adding support to our view that interest rate hikes are likely to remain off the agenda for the rest of this year. Looking ahead, while... 14th September 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Interest rate convergence justified by fundamentals Colombian interest rates are converging towards those in Chile and Peru. While the strength of the peso has kept Colombian rates down this year, a more general improvement in policymaking in recent... 13th September 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peruvian interest rates rise for fifth consecutive month Last night, the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) hiked interest rates by 50bps to 3.0%, as expected. With the economy still growing at a red-hot pace, we expect rates to rise to 4.0% by year-end... 10th September 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: one step forward, two steps back According to a report in this morning’s Financial Times, the Argentine government has performed a sharp u-turn and will now allow the IMF to scrutinise its much-maligned national accounts in an... 9th September 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Markets still overestimating rate hikes in Chile 8th September 2010 · 1 min read
