Latin America Economics Update Chilean rates edge higher but future pace of tightening will slow The Central Bank of Chile (CBC) hiked interest rates by 25bps to 3.25% last night, as expected. But the tone of the accompanying statement was less hawkish than in previous months, reinforcing our... 17th December 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Could the next move in Brazilian rates be down? The incoming administration in Brazil has a historic opportunity to re-balance the policy mix in favour of tighter fiscal policy and looser monetary policy (and a weaker currency). What’s more, there... 16th December 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peruvian rates on hold as currency concerns persist Last night, the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) held interest rates at 3.0% for the third consecutive month. Even though the outlook for inflation is deteriorating, currency concerns are likely to... 10th December 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil slows in Q3, but should bounce in Q4 The slowdown in Brazilian GDP growth to 0.5% q/q in Q3, from 1.8% q/q in Q2, should be a shortlived blip and the economy appears to have picked up pace once again in Q4. Looking ahead to 2011, the... 9th December 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian inflation increases, but rates still on hold Brazilian inflation rose to 5.6% y/y in November – well above the Brazilian Central Bank’s (BCB’s) 4.5% target. But the bulk of the pick-up was driven by food prices and with policymakers at the BCB... 8th December 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian industry still lagging behind Although Brazilian industrial production rose in month-on-month terms in October, the sector has essentially stagnated over the past six months thanks in part to the strong real. With the exchange... 2nd December 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currency concerns to temper rate hikes Strong capital inflows continue to create something of a headache for policymakers in Latin America. On the one hand, growth should remain strong over the coming quarters, while the inflation outlook... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Outlook for Peru still good, but policy challenges mounting Peruvian GDP growth slowed in Q3, but the outlook remains good. The key challenge for policymakers will be to channel an influx of foreign capital into productive capacity and prevent overheating. By... 26th November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian cabinet beginning to take shape It has been rumoured in the Brazilian press that Henrique Meirelles will step down as Governor of the central bank (BCB) next year, but that Finance Minister, Guido Mantega, will retain his post under... 23rd November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico still lagging behind the rest of the region Third quarter GDP data from Mexico were weaker than even we had expected. The economy will probably expand by an eye-catching 5% over the course of this year as a whole, but this has been flattered by... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil Q3 growth to disappoint After surprising on the upside in Q2, Brazilian GDP growth appears to have slowed to a paltry 0.3% q/q in the third quarter. The good news is that growth looks likely to accelerate once again in Q4... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean economy completes its recovery The Chilean economy has recovered the loss in output stemming from February’s earthquake and is on track to grow by 5.5% both this year and next. By contrast, the outlook for Venezuela remains bleak. 18th November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican budget papers over the cracks... again Earlier this week Mexico’s Congress passed the 2011 budget. On the face of it, the planned headline deficit of 0.5% of GDP is small – particularly when compared to the huge budget shortfalls that are... 18th November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Interest rate hikes to remain gradual in Chile The Central Bank of Chile (CBC) hiked interest rates by 25bps to 3.0% last night. The strength of the peso means that rate hikes are likely to remain gradual over the coming months. Accordingly... 17th November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Equity markets: boom, bubble, bust? The rally in Latin American equities over the past couple of months has left valuations in most countries looking stretched. Stock markets in the region remain vulnerable to a drop in commodity prices... 15th November 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico's engine of growth appears to have stalled Mexican manufacturing, which has so far been the key driver of the economic recovery, appears to have stalled. With demand in key export markets – notably the US – likely to remain extremely sluggish... 11th November 2010 · 1 min read
