Latin America Economics Update Rates should peak this year The recent spike in food inflation has a little further to run and, in most economies, core inflation pressures are building. But even so we still expect headline inflation to start to fall in pretty... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: interest rates pause for breath The Central Bank of Chile (CBC) as expected held interest rates at 5.25% last night. Strong domestic conditions and above-target inflation make further increases likely, but we are nearing the end of... 16th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: credit where credit’s due? The debate about whether or not Brazil is in the midst of a consumer credit bubble has reached fever pitch over the past few days. Our view is that the current pace of credit growth is unsustainable... 13th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peruvian rates on hold as policymakers await Humala The Central Bank of Peru (BCRP) held interest rates at 4.25% for the second consecutive month last night. With investment spending and inflation set to accelerate later this year, we continue to... 9th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: hard landing on the horizon Growth in Argentina has shown few signs of slowing in 2011 and we remain concerned about overheating and a hard landing further ahead. Excessively loose policy continues to fuel booming domestic... 8th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fresh controls unlikely to signal end of Brazil’s ‘currency war’ News that Brazil is planning a range of new measures to stem the rise in the real hit the currency yesterday but any such action is unlikely to have a lasting impact. 7th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: still no rush to tighten June’s IMEF surveys suggest that the Mexican economy picked up a little pace in the second quarter of this year. Nonetheless, growth remains sluggish compared to the rest of the region and with the US... 6th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian industry still struggling to keep up The sharp rise in Brazilian industrial production in May largely reflects a rebound from the drop in output seen in April. The sector has broadly stagnated over the past couple of months and the fall... 2nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Q1 GDP leaves Colombian policymakers with more work to do Data showing that the Colombian GDP grew at close to 8% annualised in the first quarter of this year, despite the impact of the heaviest rains in three decades, adds to recent evidence that the... 24th June 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Worrying signs from Brazil's current account The fact Brazil is spending its windfall from higher commodity prices – plus more – is good news for the global economy, but carries significant risks for the country itself. In particular, it means... 23rd June 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates still have further to rise The Central Bank of Colombia (BANREP) hiked interest rates by 25bps to 4.25% on Friday night. Although policymakers softened their tone from previous meetings, we still expect rising inflation to... 21st June 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Food price shock still has a little further to run Central bankers – and some in the markets – appear increasingly hopeful that the recent spike in food price inflation, which has driven headline inflation above its target in pretty much every country... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean interest rates close to peaking The Central Bank of Chile (CBC) raised interest rates by 25bps to 5.25% last night but signalled that, while more hikes are likely over the coming months, we are now approaching the end of the current... 16th June 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: Rates on hold as the dust settles from Humala's victory The Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) unexpectedly held interest rates at 4.25% last night. Nonetheless, if it emerges over the coming weeks that President-elect, Ollanta Humala, will broadly... 11th June 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Interest rates hiked, BCB signals more to come The Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) hiked interest rates by 25bps to 12.25% last night. With inflation, which exceeded the Bank’s target range last month, set to rise further, additional increases are... 9th June 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Above-target inflation strengthens the case for a rate hike Brazilian inflation rose above the upper band of the Central Bank’s (BCB’s) 4.5±2% target range in May. Inflation is likely to remain above target until the second half of next year. Accordingly... 7th June 2011 · 1 min read
