Global Markets Update Fiscal stimulus & bond yields - lessons from Japan 29th September 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update AIG bailout shows how bad conditions have become 17th September 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Gold fails to shine as oil prices return to earth The continued decline in oil prices and today’s lacklustre response in gold prices to the crisis on Wall Street underlines our view that the bull market in both commodities is over. 15th September 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Lehmans – trying (and failing) to find a silver lining 15th September 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Little reason to expect US swap spreads to narrow further 9th September 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update OPEC to hold official quotas, trim production OPEC will likely leave its official quotas on hold at its meeting on Tuesday, even though it may try to cut actual production in the coming months. Nonetheless, we do not think this will be enough to... 5th September 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Gold on track for $700 Gold’s fall below $800/oz today has reinforced our long-held and non-consensus view that prices are heading for $700. Indeed, they may get there even sooner than we had expected. 15th August 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A cautionary note on the dollar Last week’s bounce has prompted us to raise our forecasts for the dollar against the euro, yen and sterling, but we had already expected the US currency to recover some ground in the second half of... 11th August 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the falls in commodity prices be sustained? We think that the recent sharp falls in commodity prices are more than just a temporary dip in an upward trend. The focus has been on the oil price, which has fallen by more than $25 per barrel (or 18... 5th August 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update No policy shift on the Chinese renminbi Despite the slower pace of appreciation against the dollar in recent weeks, the renminbi is still likely to rise significantly more than the 5% or so priced into the forwards markets for the next 12... 24th July 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update No consensus for changes to GCC dollar pegs The media is again full of speculation that the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are about to revalue their currencies against the dollar, or drop their pegs completely in favour of a currency... 15th July 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Gold’s last hurrah? The recent pick-up in gold prices has failed to impress. We continue to expect prices to drop back to around $700/oz within a year or so. 2nd July 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Latest oil price spike looks like a bubble about to burst Friday’s $11 jump in the price of a barrel of crude provides the clearest evidence yet that the oil market is increasingly detached from fundamentals. We are raising our assumptions for the future... 9th June 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Has Bernanke really said anything new on the dollar? Fed Chairman Bernanke’s comments yesterday on the inflationary impact of the weaker dollar have been widely interpreted as signalling a turning point in the central bank's attitude to the currency. We... 4th June 2008 · 1 min read
