Global Markets Update Asian bonds underperformance will not last Asian bonds have been hit more than others by the recent widening in spreads on emerging market foreign currency debt, but we believe they will rally by the end of the year. 16th February 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Copper prices to fall back below $5,000/mt this year We continue to expect copper prices to fall sharply this year as the boost from stockpiling fades, the recovery in final demand disappoints, the US dollar recovers more ground and commodity prices... 2nd February 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the outlook really that bad for government bonds? Government bonds are widely expected to have a rough ride in 2010 as central banks tighten monetary policy, fiscal strains continue to build and upward pressure on headline inflation fails to subside... 28th January 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How will policy tightening in China affect the rest of us? 21st January 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Sound as a pound? Sterling has had a rollercoaster ride over the past twelve months. This time last year it was at a multidecade low on a real trade-weighted basis. But the pound’s fortunes have improved since then and... 19th January 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Just how much of a boon to gilts has QE really been? 17th December 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Oil prices to fall back to $50pb by end-2010 The current pick-up in headline inflation in the major economies is largely due to adverse base effects in energy prices. These base effects will fade soon even if oil prices now simply level out at... 16th December 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why the Treasury bears have got it wrong Received wisdom has it that 2010 will be a bad year for US Treasuries. We disagree and expect the 10- year yield to drop back to around 2.5%. 15th December 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is “printing money” so bad for the dollar? It is often assumed that the Fed’s monetary expansion has been unambiguously bad news for the dollar and could eventually lead to a collapse in the US currency. The reality is more complicated. We... 14th December 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Tobin’s equity Q is a warning for US equities Today’s Flow of Funds report published by the Federal Reserve reveals that the market value of the equity issued by US non-financial companies at the end of the third quarter was 0.91 times the net... 10th December 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are gold prices now in a bubble? We do not believe that gold prices have risen beyond levels that could ever be justified by fundamentals. However, the absence of a bubble today will not prevent prices from falling back sharply next... 10th December 2009 · 1 min read
