Global Markets Update Is sterling a good indicator of global Brexit risks? The renewed slide in the value of the pound yesterday has prompted fresh jitters in global financial markets, as well as increased demand for traditional safe havens such as gold and the yen. But... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for EM equities? British politics remains in turmoil following the vote for “Brexit”, but emerging market (EM) equities do not. There are likely to be more periodic sell-offs in risky assets in the months ahead, but... 4th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New market forecasts in the wake of the “Brexit” vote Our existing market forecasts were premised on an assumption that the UK would vote to remain in the EU. After the vote to leave, we have allowed the initial dust to settle, reviewed our projections... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why have equity markets rebounded after the Brexit vote? There are several plausible reasons why the prices of equities and other riskier assets have recovered after the UK’s vote to leave the EU. Some of these may be temporary, notably short covering. More... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Brexit may not delay the next US rate hike for very long The markets are probably right to price in additional policy easing from the Bank of England and the ECB in the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the EU (‘Brexit’). However, the consensus is almost... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Sterling & UK equities – no 1992 redux Sterling’s slide in the aftermath of the UK’s vote on EU membership is reminiscent of its slump after the country withdrew from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) in 1992. Not surprisingly... 28th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Putting recent market moves into perspective While some equity indices fell further on Friday than on the day after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, it would be wrong to conclude that the world is on the cusp of another global financial crisis... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Global Markets Update - Has the "Brexit" storm already passed? Not surprisingly, the outcome of yesterday’s referendum in the UK has hit sterling hard and driven down the prices of equities and most commodities. At the same time, it has boosted the “safe-haven”... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What might a ‘Brexit’ vote mean for the yen? The yen would presumably jump on safe-haven demand in response to a UK vote to leave the EU, but we would still expect the Japanese currency to end the year much weaker against the dollar. Indeed... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Vote for Brexit may prove to be a damp squib There are good reasons to believe that the market fireworks after a UK vote to leave the EU (‘ Brexit ’) would not be as dramatic as many expect. Indeed, while the initial impact on the pound would... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Causes and consequences of a lower US equity risk premium Several factors have probably reduced the equilibrium level of the equity risk premium (ERP) in the US to a level that is well below its long-run average. Partly as a result, the stock market is... 7th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Can EM equities continue to outperform? In contrast to equities in developed markets, those in emerging markets (EMs) have rallied since Friday’s disappointing US Employment Report caused investors to scale back their expectations for Fed... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What are the risks for EMs? The wobble in financial markets in the emerging world since investors began to reassess the outlook for US monetary policy in May has been much smaller than in the past. The Fed, along with renewed... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A fresh look at currency misalignment The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) recently published its latest semi-annual estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs). These suggest that the Colombian peso... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will “A-shares” make the grade and would it matter? Were China’s “A-shares” to be included in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index it may not be the big deal that some expect. A-shares would probably only be dripped into the Index, while the outlook for... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update More musings on US and European equities As we noted in our Global Markets Update, “How do the valuations of US and European equities stack up?”, which was published on Monday, the stock market in the US can be considered either to be... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
