Global Markets Update New – even more bearish – forecasts for Treasuries We are revising our forecasts for US Treasuries in response to the possibility of a large fiscal stimulus under a Trump administration. We are, however, retaining our forecasts for the S&P 500. 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Brexit minus, minus, minus? The initial reaction in the markets to Donald Trump’s victory has not been as large as we expected and many of the moves have now been largely unwound. Nonetheless, the rebounds that we have seen are... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Final thoughts on the day of the US presidential election A victory for Hillary Clinton in today’s presidential election is now heavily discounted. As a result, it would trigger far less of a response in the markets than a surprise win for Donald Trump. In... 8th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How will the outcome of the US election affect the dollar? Whoever wins the US presidential election, the recent uneven performance of the US dollar is likely to continue. If – as seems increasingly likely – Hillary Clinton emerges victorious, we would expect... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Would a Trump win really be bad for the S&P 500? The consensus is that a victory for Donald Trump in next Tuesday’s presidential election would deal a lasting blow to the US stock market. Our sense, though, is that the performance of the S&P 500... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will Brazilian equities continue to outperform After seasonal adjustment, house prices on the Core-Logic measure jumped by 1.4% m/m in September. That reading will almost certainly be revised down next month, but even so it is clear that house... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Have EM currency investors forgotten about the Fed? Emerging market (EM) currencies have decoupled from broader movements in the US dollar in recent months despite a growing sense that the Fed will hike rates again before year-end. A realisation that... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the latest jump in EM “junk” bonds sustainable? The rally in emerging market (EM) “junk” bonds has continued unabated in recent days, but we think that this year’s strong gains may soon go into reverse. That alone would probably be enough to cause... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How will money market changes affect US government bonds? Following the implementation of new US money market regulations on Friday, US interbank rates might fall back a bit. While this could prompt some renewed demand for long-term Treasuries from foreign... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What might a Trump win mean for the US dollar? The heightened economic and geopolitical uncertainty that would follow a victory for Donald Trump in November’s US presidential election would surely see the dollar weaken against traditional safe... 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How vulnerable are bonds to a shift in monetary policy? It is sometimes argued that government bond yields in the advanced economies have been driven down to very low levels by exceptionally loose monetary policy and that yields are bound to soar once... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Reform progress provides healthy backdrop for EM equities Most emerging market (EM) countries have made further progress on implementing structural reforms in the past year. While this broad increase in competitiveness supports our view that EM stock markets... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are investors underestimating EM credit risks? Both the BIS’s latest report and our own risk indicator continue to highlight high levels of debt as a key risk in China, but we think investors are right to judge that the threat of a credit event in... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Economics, not elections, the key to US equity performance The outcome of forthcoming elections in the US is unlikely to have a major bearing on the performance of its stock market, if history is a useful guide. Economics will matter more than politics. 26th September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Market implications of the BoJ’s policy changes Rather than loosen policy outright on Wednesday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) made changes to its existing policy framework, some of which are designed to lessen side effects on the financial sector. It is... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Should we be concerned about bonds in Asia? The stripped spreads of dollar-denominated government bonds in Asia are nearing the lows seen prior to both the Asian and Global Financial Crises, but we do not think this signals that another major... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
