Global Markets Update Are corporate credit spreads set to narrow in 2017? As commodity prices recovered and fears of a hard landing in China faded, corporate bonds delivered healthy returns in the US and euro-zone last year, and credit spreads narrowed. However, as the bull... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Have we got the EMBI wrong? We doubt that the rally in emerging market dollar-denominated government bonds will last much longer, as the sell-off in US Treasuries resumes and one-off supportive factors unwind. 16th January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How much should we make of the strength of the FTSE? The widespread pessimism about the outlook for the UK economy in 2017 seems at odds with the continued gains in UK equity prices. This can partly be explained, of course, by the importance of overseas... 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Dollar likely to climb even further against the euro and yen We are revising up our forecasts for the US dollar against the euro and the yen to reflect our view that the contrast between the policies of the Fed on the one hand and the ECB and the BoJ on the... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Turning even more bearish on US Treasuries We are revising up our forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield for three key reasons. The first relates to the outlook for interest rates. The second relates to compensation for uncertainty. And the... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will US equities fare better under Trump than Reagan? The Trumponomics of the future may resemble the Reaganomics of the past, by being characterised by looser fiscal and tighter monetary policies. With this in mind, how is the performance of the US... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Trumponomics, Reaganomics and the US dollar Although we expect the US dollar to continue to strengthen, we doubt that it will climb as high as it did in the early 1980s. Admittedly, the Trumponomics of the future may resemble the Reaganomics of... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are euro-periphery bond yields heading higher? The backstops that have been put in place to hold the euro-zone together could limit extra upward pressure on Italian – and other euro-periphery – government bond yields if voters in Italy reject... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Further yen weakness and Nikkei gains ahead The Japanese yen remains on course for our long-held forecast of 120 against the dollar next year, which is based largely on our view that the Fed will raise US interest rates more aggressively than... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for EM currencies? Emerging market currencies have been one of the major casualties of the global sell-off since the November 8th US elections. Some, including the Turkish lira and South African rand, are likely to... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Would Trump’s repatriation tax boost the US stock market? While Donald Trump’s plan to tax retained corporate income held offshore at 10% could encourage US multinationals to repatriate funds, we doubt that it would provide a big boost to the S&P 500. 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is EM FX intervention a threat to US Treasuries? More emerging market (EM) central banks may step in to support their currencies by selling reserve assets if risk appetite takes another turn for the worse. But unless China is forced into aggressive... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will EM dollar-denominated bonds continue to underperform? Dollar-denominated government bonds have suffered disproportionately during the emerging market sell-off since Donald Trump won the US presidential election. We expect dollar-denominated bonds to... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for US corporate bonds? We think that the resilience of US corporate bonds since Donald Trump won the race to the White House is a sign of things to come, even as the Fed tightens monetary policy significantly. 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Tweaking our EM markets forecasts The slump in emerging markets (EMs) since Donald Trump pulled off the shock of the century has so far been relatively mild, and we are not making wholesale changes to our forecasts. Trump’s victory... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will European bonds fare better than US Treasuries? In the wake of Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, we are nudging up our forecasts for government bond yields in Europe. But we still don’t expect that they will rise as fast as in... 14th November 2016 · 1 min read
