Global Markets Update Key market calls for 2018 and beyond We are forecasting that the Fed will be a bit more hawkish this year than the markets appear to be envisaging. In our view, the US economy, which is already close to full capacity, will start to slow... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the FOMC meeting move the Treasury market? It is possible that there will be very little reaction in the Treasury market after the end of the FOMC meeting today. After all, the implied probability of a 25bp rate hike has been close to 100% for... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the weakness in the MSCI China Index spread? A couple of years ago, worries about China caused the last major correction in stock markets around the world. With the MSCI China Index plunging recently, could something similar be around the corner... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Would a faltering US stock market spark contagion? The US stock market has now bounced back from a recent wobble. However, with the S&P 500 around a record high, it is still worth asking when the next significant and sustained correction might... 27th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Recent setback for the dollar should prove temporary We doubt that the fall in the dollar seen in the past few weeks will continue, especially as we think that the Fed will tighten by more than most anticipate next year. 20th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the US stock market in for a taxing time? It is tempting to attribute the 20% surge in the S&P 500 since the US elections last November to the prospect of tax reform. But while this may have played a role, it does not appear to have been the... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will CEE currencies continue to track the euro? We think that Central and Eastern European (CEE) currencies and the euro will weaken against the dollar next year. But we judge that CEE currencies will fall by less, given the prospects for monetary... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are the best days for risky assets really over? Risky assets have come under some pressure for the first time since the summer, when they were rattled by rising tensions between the US and North Korea. Nonetheless, we still don’t think that a major... 13th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How big a deal are oil prices for the MSCI EM Index? The recent increase in the price of oil has added further fuel to the rally in emerging market (EM) equities. Although we think that some of this support will unwind as oil prices slip back, we still... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM equities not likely to hit the buffers soon The MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index of equities set another record high on Tuesday, and is some way above its pre-global financial crisis peak. Although the MSCI Brazil Index – the fifth-largest... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM assets should cope well with scaling back of QE Emerging market (EM) assets have prospered this year despite the Fed continuing to raise rates. We think that they will also cope well as unconventional policy from several major central banks becomes... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the US yield curve continue to flatten? We expect the US Treasury yield curve to continue to flatten, as the Fed raises rates further. But we don’t think that the curve will begin to invert – and flag up the risk of a recession – until 2019... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will repatriated foreign earnings flow into US equities? If the Republican’s proposed tax reforms are enacted, a large proportion of overseas income held by US multinational enterprises (MNEs) could be returned to the US. We anticipate that a sizeable share... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will earnings growth continue to buoy global equities? This year’s rally in global equities has been driven primarily by an increase in investors’ expectations for corporate earnings. In general, we expect earnings to continue to support equities in 2018. 16th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM sovereign bonds likely to remain relatively resilient Although the yields of US Treasuries have rebounded recently, those of emerging market (EM) local currency sovereign bonds have typically increased by less. We suspect that this will continue as... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Pull-back in EM equities and currencies unlikely to last We do not think that the recent dip in emerging market (EM) currencies and equities signals the start of a larger downturn in their fortunes. 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
