Global Markets Update What the crisis in Turkey means for EM currencies Emerging market (EM) currencies have weakened against the dollar again today on worries about Turkey. While the pressure from this source might not last long, we think that the outlook is fairly poor... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Market implications of a “no deal” Brexit While we still assume that the UK and the EU will reach some sort of agreement over Brexit before the deadline next spring, there is clearly a significant possibility of no deal. In this scenario, we... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Buybacks just a temporary respite for Italian bonds The Italian Treasury’s latest debt buyback has helped to contain a rise in yields related to concerns over Budget plans. But such operations can offer only temporary respite. We see the Italian 10... 6th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Lat Am equities won’t defy gravity for much longer Equities in China and other parts of Emerging Asia have slumped since mid-June. But unusually, those in Latin America have surged at the same time. There are already signs that the rally in Latin... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Next round of trade war likely to hit US assets harder Despite the resilience of the S&P 500 recently, US assets have not been altogether immune to trade tensions. And we think that they will come under a lot more pressure if, as seems increasingly likely... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the ECB try the twist? The very low level of long-term bond yields across the euro-zone suggests that there is no urgent need for the ECB to copy the US Fed’s “Operation Twist” by replacing short-dated securities with... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New, more pessimistic, forecasts for EM assets We argued at the start of this year that the good times for emerging market (EM) assets were likely to come to an end after a stellar 2017. As it happens, in many cases they have already fallen... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK financial markets still banking on a soft Brexit The betting markets are assigning a greater probability to an early general election in the UK in the wake of high-profile resignations in the Conservative Party since the Cabinet met at Chequers on... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Euro-zone and US equity valuation: where’s the gap? Some argue that the stock market is less vulnerable in the euro-zone than in the US because its valuation is much lower. But the gap in their valuations is arguably negligible. 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Protectionism not the only headwind for EM currencies Emerging market (EM) currencies have mostly recovered a little ground against the dollar today. But the bigger picture is that they have generally been weakening for some time now, and in our view... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Four signs equity investors are worrying about trade Trade tensions have not caused any dramatic moves yet, but there are at least four clear signs in the equity markets of investors becoming more nervous about the possibility of a global trade war. 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will Italian and Spanish equities remain safe havens? Benchmark equity indices in Italy and Spain have outperformed those elsewhere in Europe in the past days. But while the reasons for this may continue, they remain vulnerable to political risks. 20th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the joint sell-off in EM currencies and bonds last? The recent widespread weakness of emerging market (EM) currencies has been accompanied by a rise in local currency bond yields in almost all EMs. But even if currencies generally continue to slide, as... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will Fed and ECB policy keep driving dollar/euro? The movements in dollar/euro over the past few days are a reminder that Fed and ECB policy are still important drivers of the exchange rate. Our view remains that their policies will provide ongoing... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are investors right to dismiss surging Japanese profits? Surging corporate profits in Japan since the beginning of last year have not generated much excitement among investors. This is probably because most of it has come from sectors that rely heavily on... 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the IT sector continue to propel the S&P 500? The information technology (IT) sector of the S&P 500 has been on another tear since late April. Although its valuation is still not stretched and its weighting in the index will probably rise even... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
