Global Markets Update Valuations don’t point to rebound in EM currencies Even though emerging market (EM) currencies have fallen a long way against the US dollar in recent months, in most cases their valuations do not yet appear particularly low. This pours cold water on... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Strength of Norwegian krone likely to end soon Although the Norwegian krone has been one of the best-performing currencies during the past couple of months, we expect it to weaken over the next two years as oil prices fall, economic growth slows... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update More stock market weakness on the way The 5% drop in the S&P 500 so far this week suggests that investors are starting to factor in the prospect of the US economy slowing in response to tighter monetary policy. We think that this will... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Further downside ahead for Italian equities The surge in Italian government bond yields in recent months has brought back to the forefront the vulnerability of the banking sector to falls in bond prices. Given our view that Italian bond yields... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Tweaking, not abandoning, our key market forecasts Although we have raised some of our bearish forecasts for developed market equities, we still think that they will fall a long way in 2019 as the US economy falters. And while we have also made a... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Recovery in EM commodity currencies unlikely to last Increases in the prices of industrial commodities have helped to drive a rebound in some emerging market (EM) currencies since early September. But that rebound is already showing signs of faltering... 2nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM local currency bonds not out of the woods While the recent shift towards tighter monetary policy in many emerging markets (EMs) is likely to continue, this is largely priced in to markets already. But we think that local currency government... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update BTP yields likely to rise further, but contagion risk low Italian bonds have come under renewed pressure after the government announced plans to loosen fiscal policy by more than markets anticipated over the coming years. We think that Italian bond yields... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Brighter times ought to lie ahead for the yen The Japanese yen is the only “major” currency to have fared worse than the US dollar since the middle of August. Nonetheless, we think that its fortunes will improve against the greenback. Our... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Trade may trump rates as a driver of the US dollar Judging by what has happened in recent months, President Trump’s attitude to global trade could remain a more important driver of the US dollar than the prospects for monetary policy in the US and... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will EM equities fall much further? The fact that emerging market (EM) equities have dropped a long way recently does not mean that they cannot fall much further, or that they are likely to perform much better than their US peers in the... 18th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Where are the risks greatest for EM currencies? Although they have recovered a touch in the past couple of days, emerging market (EM) currencies have generally slumped against the dollar since mid-April. These falls shed light on which are most... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Worse to come for equities from protectionism Worries about protectionism have clearly weighed on equity markets in much of the world recently, and this will probably remain the case. What’s more, we suspect that protectionism concerns will start... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM corporate credit spreads have a lot further to rise Despite rising since January, emerging market (EM) corporate credit spreads remain very tight by past standards and relative to those of their counterparts elsewhere in the world. We think that this... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The longest bull market in US equities may end in 2019 The S&P 500 has not fallen by more than 20% since it began to climb after the last recession. As a result, the index has remained in a “bull market” that is about to become the longest ever... 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update ECB purchases of Italian bonds might rise in October We suspect that, due to technical reasons, the ECB will increase its purchases of Italian government bonds in October. This might help to prevent yields from shooting up if Italy’s Government submits... 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
