Global Markets Update EM LC bonds unlikely to keep tracking US Treasuries While the average EM 10-year local currency sovereign bond yield has followed the equivalent US Treasury yield very closely recently, we doubt that this will last much longer. Indeed, we forecast that... 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update We expect the US dollar to make more headway We haven’t been surprised by this year’s rise in the US dollar’s value against other “majors”, despite investors’ dovish reassessment of the outlook for Fed policy. Despite its pull-back today, we... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why bond investors shouldn’t dread the EU elections We doubt that bond markets will be negatively affected by the European Parliament (EP) elections this month, as the rise of anti-EU parties is already widely anticipated and would not necessarily... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Bund yields likely to fall further, but rebound next year We expect the yield of 10-year German government bonds to continue to drop this year, as investors factor in the prospect of even looser monetary policy in the euro-zone and demand for safe havens... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM currency outlook poor regardless of oil prices Despite the 35% surge in oil prices this year, some of the EM currencies traditionally regarded as “petro-currencies” have hardly risen. That is not all that surprising – the influence of oil prices... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Investors still seem too upbeat about earnings growth As earnings season kicks off today in the US, we think that investors remain too optimistic about the global outlook for earnings per share (EPS) growth, given the prospects for the world economy... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Italian & German equities likely to lag rest of the E-Z We think that euro-zone stock markets will generally fall in the rest of 2019 as global growth remains weak and appetite for risk wanes. Equities in Germany and Italy will fare particularly poorly, in... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM dollar bond yields likely to rise despite dovish Fed Although the Fed’s dovish shift is likely to continue, we are sticking with our pessimistic view of the outlook for EM sovereign dollar bonds. That is because we expect credit spreads to rise sharply... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Best-performing EM equities unlikely to stay on top We think that the best-performing countries in the MSCI EM Index so far this year will end up nearer the bottom of the class over the rest of 2019. That is because we expect the key factors driving... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Faltering earnings likely to take a toll on the S&P 500 Our downbeat view of the US economy is at odds with analysts’ upbeat assessment of S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS). This is a key reason why we forecast that the index will drop back sharply later... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update We expect the Loonie, Aussie & Kiwi to fall this year While we think that interest rates will be cut in Canada, Australia and New Zealand over the next couple of years, we suspect that this will be more of a boost to their government bonds than a drag on... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update We forecast the euro to fall more in 2019, before rallying We have revised down our already-bearish end-2019 forecast for the euro against the US dollar. Nonetheless, we still think that the exchange rate will bounce back in 2020 as looser monetary policy in... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update “Safe” bond yields may stay low for longer than in 2016 The yields of 10-year government bonds in Germany, Switzerland and Japan have edged up after touching 2½-year lows earlier this week. But we doubt that they will rebound as fast, or as far, as they... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Three key points on the latest EM currency sell-off We are not surprised that EM currencies have weakened against the dollar over the past week, and expect them to fall further by the end of the year. Three features of the latest sell-off help to shed... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What bonds are telling us about equities in the US We think that the recent inversion of parts of the US Treasury yield curve is a bad sign for the S&P 500, which we expect to fall sharply over the rest of this year as growth in the US economy... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Prospects for government bonds remain brightest in US Given the prospects for monetary policy, we forecast that that the rally in government bonds will continue in the US; run out of steam in Germany and Japan; and reverse in the UK if a “no-deal” Brexit... 25th March 2019 · 1 min read
