Global Markets Update “Dividend aristocrats” unlikely to keep outperforming We doubt that stocks that reliably pay high dividends will fare better than their peers during the rest of this year, as we think that bond yields are unlikely to fall much further and might even... 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Slower growth likely to undermine bank valuations As the global economy slows, we think that expectations for bank earnings will prove too optimistic and that relatively high bank equity valuations in the US, Canada, Australia, and the Nordics are... 28th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update US yield curve points to impending stock market falls Yield curves have inverted in most advanced economies over the past couple of weeks, including in the US, Germany and the UK, sparking fears of an imminent global recession. While most advanced... 23rd August 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update SEK & NOK likely to continue testing all-time lows While the Swedish krona and the Norwegian krone are now near the record lows they reached against the euro in 2008-09, we think that monetary policy and rising risk aversion will push them down... 21st August 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Risks to the yen still lie to the upside The Japanese yen has continued to appreciate and is now close to our year-end forecast of ¥105/$. Though the drivers behind its strength may shift, we expect upward pressure on the yen to persist. 16th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Further downside ahead for EM currencies We think that emerging market (EM) currencies will continue to struggle over the rest of 2019 as the global economy remains weak for longer than investors anticipate, the trade war escalates further... 15th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update More trouble probably lies ahead for Italian bonds We think that government bonds in Italy will come under pressure again in the coming months, given the brewing political crisis there and the resulting increased uncertainty over the country’s fiscal... 15th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Bond “bubble” likely to deflate, but not burst Government bonds have rallied further in developed economies in recent weeks, fuelling speculation that they are in a bubble which will burst at some point. We disagree. Admittedly, we think that the... 9th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update S&P 500 EPS unlikely to keep outpacing “macro” profits The profits of Corporate America have shrunk during the past four years according to revised estimates recently published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). By contrast, S&P 500 operating... 5th August 2019 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Swiss franc likely to continue rallying against the euro The Swiss franc has been the best performing G10 currency over the past three months, despite falling back a bit after the ECB meeting on Thursday. We think that monetary policy as well as safe-haven... 26th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update German equities likely to fall by less than their US peers Judging by their recent performance, more bad news is priced into German than US equities. As a result, if we are right and risky assets around the world come under pressure as global growth slows... 24th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update QE hopes unlikely to boost BTPs for much longer While we are lowering our end-2019 and end-2020 forecasts for the 10-year BTP yield, we remain pessimistic about the near-term prospects for government bonds in Italy. 15th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update E-Z government bond yields likely to be low for longer Christine Lagarde’s nomination as ECB President makes us even more optimistic about the near-term outlook for government bonds in the euro-zone and reinforces our view that corporate bonds there will... 5th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Co-movement of equities and bonds unlikely to last While the real returns from a wide variety of assets were positive in the first half of this year, we don’t expect the good news to last. We project that those from US equities and government bonds... 3rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update BoJ policy stance may put upward pressure on the yen We have long forecast the yen to strengthen to ¥105/$ by the end of 2019, primarily based on our expectation that a sell-off in global equities would boost the demand for safe havens. While we remain... 28th June 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Fed easing and US equities: lessons from history While the performance of the US stock market in the Fed’s last four easing cycles was varied, our view remains that it will fall in the next one, which we expect to span from late-summer 2019 to... 27th June 2019 · 3 mins read
