Global Markets Update EM ex-Asia equity valuations starting to look attractive Although the valuation of the overall MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index is not unusually low, EM equities outside Asia and in some “cyclical” sectors now appear quite attractively valued by past... 7th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Hit to corporate earnings could be bigger than in GFC Although analysts’ expectations for corporate earnings have been revised down quite significantly since the coronavirus began to spread around the world, stock prices suggest that investors are braced... 2nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update ECB likely to drive peripheral spreads lower this year We forecast that the credit spreads of euro-zone peripheral bonds will fall back further this year and remain low in 2021 thanks to unwavering support from the ECB. But public finances will be... 2nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update US equities likely to rebound before recession ends While the coronavirus epidemic will probably weigh on the US economy much beyond the end of this year, we suspect that the S&P 500 will start recovering in the second half of 2020. 1st April 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update EM currencies likely to rebound, but risks remain high While the worst may be yet to come for emerging market currencies, we expect that most will end this year stronger than they are now. 1st April 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Lower equity valuations not a source of comfort In our view, global equities are not as “cheap” as the recent falls in price/earnings ratios seem to suggest. That is because earnings expectations are likely to be revised down much further as the... 27th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Dollar likely to remain strong until pandemic peaks While we think that most currencies will eventually regain much of the ground that they have recently lost to the US dollar, we don’t expect that process to start until the pandemic has clearly passed... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update What to make of the moves in commodity currencies The slump in the prices of commodities has hit hard the currencies of the countries whose fortunes depend heavily on them. But if we are right and commodity prices eventually recover as the... 23rd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Revisiting our forecasts for equities Our view remains that, despite policymakers’ best efforts, a sustained turnaround in equity markets will only come once the virus starts to fade. That hasn’t happened yet. So, we suspect that they... 20th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update DIANE could be TINA’s nemesis Judging by the bear markets of the past fifty years or so (see here), the valuation of the US stock market can make a big difference to how far it falls and how long it takes before it reaches a floor... 13th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update What to make of recent currency market moves While some of the large shifts in the FX market over the past weeks may unwind if the coronavirus epidemic fades, we have revised some of our forecasts to reflect the sharp fall in US interest rates... 12th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update No need to panic about surge in US HY credit spread Although the US high-yield credit spread soared on Monday to its highest level in nearly four years, we don’t think that the US economy is bound to plunge into another deep recession. 10th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Emerging Asian equities likely to lag in any rebound If, as we expect, worst fears about the coronavirus outbreak don’t materialise, global stock markets will probably generally recover. However, we doubt that this will be the case for equities in... 6th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Lowering our US Treasury yield forecast Given the rapid spread of the coronavirus and the Fed’s emergency rate cut, we are revising down our end-2020 forecast for the US 10-year Treasury yield from 2% to 1.25%. 4th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Global bond rally might be running out of fuel In our view, the coronavirus epidemic would have to get much worse for central banks to deliver more rate cuts that investors now anticipate. As such, we think that government bond yields in most... 27th February 2020 · 4 mins read
