Global Markets Update Stronger renminbi may help other currencies in the region Despite falling back a little this week, we still expect most currencies in the Asia-Pacific region to make headway against the dollar over the next couple of years, led by a stronger renminbi. 25th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Risks to our equity forecasts from second waves While we continue to forecast that equity markets will make further ground in the next few years, the rapid increase in COVID-19 cases in Europe poses a downside risk to our projections. 21st September 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We think that the risks to our yen forecast lie to the upside Although policymakers in Japan may prefer a weaker yen, in our view it is more likely to rise than to fall. 17th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Stars aligned for further renminbi appreciation The renminbi has risen 5% against the US dollar since May, to its strongest since early 2019. And with China on course for a more pronounced recovery than elsewhere, its external position the... 17th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update UK assets have scope to rally in our view Despite the recent resurgence in uncertainty about the UK's future relationship with the EU, we think that it is still possible to make a positive case for UK assets. 11th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Despite ECB, we see upside risks to our euro forecast Despite its recent rally, the euro is not particularly strong in our view, and we think that it could well rise further over the next couple of years. In view of the wider interest, we are sending... 11th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Real rate differentials may continue to weigh on US dollar While we think that nominal interest rates and bond yields in developed markets will remain around their current ultra-low levels for some time, we think that their real counterparts will fall further... 28th August 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update A closer look at Japanese and Swiss equities We suspect that the coronavirus-induced local-currency underperformance of MSCI’s Japan and Switzerland indices relative to its USA Index will unwind as the world slowly gets back to normal. 20th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Rumours of the dollar’s demise are greatly exaggerated While we think the US dollar will weaken a bit further this year, suggestions that its role as the world’s primary reserve currency is in jeopardy are wide of the mark in our view. 19th August 2020 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update “Core” bond yields likely to remain even lower for longer Although we still think that “risky” assets will make further ground between now and the end of 2022, we no longer expect “safe” government bond yields to rise. We have also become more positive on... 12th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update The market implications of financial repression in EMs Policymakers in a few emerging markets have turned to unconventional monetary policies to combat the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, and some may go further into outright financial... 31st July 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Joint rally in euro & BTPs may not be over yet Over the past few months, the euro and the BTP-Bund spread have moved closely together, with the euro strengthening as the BTP-Bund spread narrowed and vice versa. We think that this pattern will... 24th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect the dollar to come under renewed pressure Although the US dollar has stabilised over the past month or so as fears about a second wave have held back the rebound in risky assets, we continue to think that it will lose further ground over the... 20th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Valuations not a major threat to equity rally in our view We don’t think that the valuations of equities in general are particularly stretched. In any case, valuations are like pieces of elastic – they can stretch a lot before they snap. In our view... 17th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Resurgent pandemic the key risk to our forecasts While we remain optimistic about the outlook for equities and other risky assets, the rapid increase in new coronavirus cases, especially in the US, poses a key downside risk to our generally... 8th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update US corporate spreads likely to narrow further News that a major US shale oil producer filed for bankruptcy last week has raised concerns about a new wave of coronavirus-induced corporate defaults. But even if the default rate does pick up in the... 7th July 2020 · 4 mins read
