Global Markets Update Revisiting “Le Pen risk” & implications for financial markets While the prospect of a euro-zone break-up looks more remote than during the 2017 French presidential campaign, the possibility of Marine Le Pen taking power is still a major risk to euro-zone... 7th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update The dollar won’t be toppled Claims that the war in Ukraine will prove to be a watershed moment that ends the dollar’s position at the heart of the global financial system are wide of the mark. It could accelerate the development... 23rd March 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect some further yen weakness amid rising US yields Our expectation that US Treasury yields will rise further leads us to conclude that the yen will weaken more against the dollar and we have revised up our end-year USD/JPY forecasts for both 2022 and... 22nd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Revising our market forecasts in light of the war We think the war in Ukraine and a more hawkish Fed will cause the yield of 10-year US Treasuries and the US dollar generally to end 2022 and 2023 a bit higher than we had previously anticipated. We... 18th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Three ways the war has changed the markets outlook Some of the effects of the war on markets have begun to unwind in recent days, but we think a few of the changes it has brought about will last even if the mood in markets continues to improve. In... 16th March 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Assessing the commodity terms of trade shock in FX markets Although they have fallen back over the past week, we expect the prices of most commodities to remain elevated relative to their recent past. We will be revising our currency forecasts to reflect... 15th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics ECB FX intervention is unlikely There has been some discussion of possible FX intervention by the ECB to support the euro, but there is next to no chance of that being announced at today’s press conference, and unless the single... 10th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Russia’s financial markets staring into the abyss New sanctions on Russia have led to a sharp plunge in the ruble, and an effective freeze of most of the country’s financial markets. We think that the outlook now depends mainly on the extent to which... 28th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Bonds & Equities Taking stock of Russia/Ukraine tensions & market implications With tensions between Russia and Ukraine continuing, the risk of a conflict with far-reaching economic consequences remains uncomfortably high. This Update considers what the impact on global... 18th February 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update The strength in EM commodity currencies may prove fleeting Despite their strong start to 2022, we think that emerging market commodity currencies will struggle over the next couple of years as commodity prices fall back from their current high levels. That... 16th February 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Revisiting the case for a stronger dollar Although last week’s hawkish surprises from the ECB and the Bank of England weaken the case for further US dollar appreciation against the euro, sterling, and other European currencies, we are... 11th February 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Relative equity performance and the US dollar Although a major drop in US equities poses a key downside risk to our view that the US dollar will rise, we doubt the slight underperformance of US equities relative to global equities that we... 10th February 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the prospects for EM currencies We expect most emerging market (EM) currencies to struggle, despite their strong start to 2022, as commodity prices fall and the Fed seeks to tighten financial conditions. That said, we think that... 4th February 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We think CEE currencies will weaken despite rate hikes We expect the major central and eastern European (CEE) currencies to depreciate against the euro this year. We think that the Czech koruna will continue to fare better than the other CEE currencies... 27th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update The implications of the Russia-Ukraine crisis The deadlocked end to talks between Russia, the US and NATO and subsequent hawkish noises from Russian officials have caused a risk premium to emerge on Russian asset prices and will keep the prospect... 14th January 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Why we still think the renminbi will weaken China’s currency was remarkably stable against the US dollar in 2021 and appreciated against other major currencies. But we doubt that trend will continue this year: a slowing economy, monetary policy... 13th January 2022 · 4 mins read
