Europe Economics Update Will Germany’s current account surplus ever shrink? Germany’s current account surplus is likely to narrow over the coming years, but we suspect that it will remain very large. So there is little chance that economic rebalancing in Germany will help to... 28th August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Where is the Swiss franc headed? Even after its recent rise, we still think that the Swiss franc will weaken against the euro over the coming years as the Swiss National Bank lags the ECB in tightening monetary policy. But sustained... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Political uncertainty won’t derail Swedish economy Following September’s general election, Sweden looks set for a period of political uncertainty that might dent economic activity. But this is likely to prove temporary and we doubt that it would... 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update ECB purchases of Italian bonds might rise in October We suspect that, due to technical reasons, the ECB will increase its purchases of Italian government bonds in October. This might help to prevent yields from shooting up if Italy’s Government submits... 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Italy really set for a fiscal splurge? Developments over the past few weeks have made it more likely that Italy’s Government will implement some form of fiscal stimulus in next year’s Budget. This is likely to cause bond yields to rise... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update September rate hike by Norges Bank looks nailed on After leaving policy unchanged today, the Norges Bank looks almost certain to begin raising interest rates at its next meeting in September. But even as the central bank tightens monetary policy over... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal’s banks to support investment-led growth Portugal’s banks have strengthened their balance sheets significantly and look set to support economic growth over the coming years. However, the already-high level of private sector debt is a concern... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Free trade with the US: opportunity or threat? The accord between Presidents Trump and Juncker to aim for free US/EU trade in non-auto industrial goods poses a minor threat to some EU sectors, including chemicals and plastics. But existing tariffs... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Will soft inflation delay Riksbank tightening? Non-energy inflation in Sweden has been unexpectedly weak in recent months, prompting investors to push back their expectations of the first rate rise into 2019. But there is evidence of rising cost... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Buybacks just a temporary respite for Italian bonds The Italian Treasury’s latest debt buyback has helped to contain a rise in yields related to concerns over Budget plans. But such operations can offer only temporary respite. We see the Italian 10... 6th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the fiesta over for the Spanish economy? The Spanish economy recorded its smallest quarterly expansion in four years in Q2 and the business surveys weakened again in July, suggesting that the period of very strong growth is at an end. But... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norwegian krone to weaken even as interest rates rise The Norges Bank will soon start to tighten monetary policy. But in contrast to the consensus view, we think that as interest rates rise over the next few years, the krone will depreciate against the... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB QE to remain an important policy tool Even after Q2’s disappointing euro-zone GDP data, we still think that the ECB is unlikely to extend its net asset purchases into next year. But it might vary the reinvestment of funds from its huge... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB patient about rate hikes despite positive outlook The ECB made no changes to its policy or forward guidance today and strongly endorsed financial markets’ expectations for interest rates to remain on hold until autumn next year. It also made clear... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Flatter yield curves not a cause for concern Government bond yield curves in the Nordics and Switzerland have flattened this year, but we doubt that this signals that recessions are imminent in any of these economies. 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the ECB try the twist? The very low level of long-term bond yields across the euro-zone suggests that there is no urgent need for the ECB to copy the US Fed’s “Operation Twist” by replacing short-dated securities with... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
