Europe Economics Update ECB deposit rate to hit 3% next year The strength and breadth of inflationary pressure in the euro-zone, together with policymakers’ determination to bring inflation down, has prompted us to revise our interest rate forecasts up. We now... 22nd September 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update More tightening to come from the Norges Bank Following today’s 50bp increase, we think the Norges Bank is most likely to hike by 50bp again in November. But its tightening cycle will soon be over, with the policy rate peaking at around 3%. 22nd September 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB adds to crop of bumper rate rises The Swiss National Bank is likely to follow today’s 75bp rate rise with further increases at its next couple of meetings to keep a lid on inflationary pressure. But we still think investors have got... 22nd September 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank hasn’t finished “front-loading" Even after raising its policy rate by 100bp today, the Riksbank signalled that its tightening cycle has some way to go. We expect another large hike at its final meeting of the year in November... 20th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy: reforms, not fiscal policy main post-election risk Italy’s right-wing coalition, which looks set to win the upcoming general election, will probably run slightly looser fiscal policy than Draghi’s government, but clashes with the EU similar to those... 15th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Five questions on Europe’s energy crisis response European policymakers have been discussing how to tackle skyrocketing energy prices in the region to ease the financial pain for households and firms this winter. In this Update, we answer five key... 12th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB QT would exacerbate bond market risks Reports that the ECB will soon start debating QT add to the risks facing euro-zone government bond markets. While the Bank could still expand its holdings of peripheral sovereign debt through the PEPP... 12th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Further aggressive ECB hikes to come The ECB is almost certain to follow today’s 75bp rate hike with further aggressive increases in the coming months. We doubt that even a recession would cause the Bank to halt rate hikes. Against that... 8th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We think EZ peripheral spreads will rise further We continue to expect euro-zone “peripheral” spreads to rise over the remainder of the year, owing to a combination of deteriorating appetite for risk, higher policy rates, and ambiguity about the ECB... 5th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Nord Stream shut-off adds to risks facing Germany Gazprom’s decision to shut Nord Stream 1 indefinitely has added to the risks facing Germany’s economy, but the size of the economic damage is still highly uncertain. And the €65bn fiscal package... 5th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone unemployment to rise, but not surge We expect the looming recession in the euro-zone to cause the region’s unemployment rate to rise to 7.5% by the middle of next year. But this would still be historically low and is unlikely to be... 1st September 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB as hawkish as Fed at Jackson Hole While attention has understandably focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech made last Friday, there were also important interventions over the weekend by ECB policymakers. These... 29th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s gas crisis The surge in natural gas prices is a key reason why we expect Italy to fall into recession soon. If Russia stopped exporting gas to Europe entirely, Italy would suffer more than most but less than... 26th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB account shows hawks in ascendancy The >10,000 word account of the ECB’s July meeting confirms that a large majority of policymakers favoured a 50bps rate hike and are focused more on their mandate to contain inflation than on trying... 25th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update German-Swiss bond yield spread may widen further We expect the spread between the yields of 10-year German and Swiss government bonds to widen further over the remainder of this year. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Global... 25th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Could cheap Norwegian gas fix Europe’s energy crisis? One left-field option for alleviating Europe’s gas crisis that has been doing the rounds is the potential for asking Norway to discount the price of its gas exports. This Update looks at eight key... 24th August 2022 · 6 mins read
