Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Stronger data to delay Norges Bank rate cut Recent Norwegian economic data suggest that a September rate cut is less likely than we had previously thought. But we still think the Norges Bank will cut its key policy rate, currently at 1.5%, by... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB has too much faith in long-term inflation expectations The key remaining barrier to bolder ECB policy support seems to be the Governing Council’s viewthat long-term inflation expectations are “well-anchored”. We have doubts over the usefulness ofsuch... 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How worried should we be about Germany? The decline in German GDP in Q2 is not as alarming as it might appear given that it was causedpartly by temporary factors. But while the economy should return to growth in Q3 and beyond, itseems clear... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB inching towards QE The ECB gave no strong hints of imminent policy action this month as it waited to judge the effects ofpreviously announced measures and claimed that long-term inflation expectations were wellanchored... 7th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jul.) Although progress remains slow in many countries, the latest euro-zone fiscal data provided moreevidence that peripheral governments are gradually strengthening their fiscal positions. 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sanctions on Russia a further blow to Finnish economy Finland’s close economic ties with neighbouring Russia mean that the EU’s stiffer sanctions on Russia announced yesterday are likely to deal another blow to the Finnish economy. Even if the direct... 30th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro’s fall provides glimmer of hope, but more needed The euro finally appears to be succumbing to the downward pressure implied by the divergentprospects for monetary policy in the US and euro-zone. But bigger declines are likely to be needed tokick... 30th July 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sanctions on Russia a further blow to Finnish economy Finland’s close economic ties with neighbouring Russia mean that the EU’s stiffer sanctions on Russia announced yesterday are likely to deal another blow to the Finnish economy. Even if the direct... 30th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sanctions on Russia pose limited threat to Germany The likelihood that the EU will impose stiffer sanctions on Russia has raised concerns about the effecton German exports and the wider economy. But while certain companies rely strongly on trade... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Could the euro-zone mimic the UK’s recovery? On the face of it, the UK’s impressive economic recovery offers significant hope to the euro-zone. Butwe think that still high levels of debt and a relatively timid monetary policy response will... 25th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) Although June’s euro-zone monetary data showed some further signs of improvement, lending is still falling and the data point to a significant risk of deflation in the region. 25th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How competitive is Greece now? The sharp fall in wages and recent flurry of structural reforms in Greece has not yet fed intocompetitiveness gains. Greece is still not able to run the sustained external surpluses that it needs. 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update New Belgian coalition is likely to disappoint News that the three major Flemish parties have formed a regional government raises hopes that Belgium’s federal political deadlock will be resolved soon. But the proposed national coalition looks set... 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Fears of a German housing bubble are overblown German house price inflation is modest by international standards, housing remains affordable andmortgage debt is low. Accordingly, fears of overheating seem overdone and should not ultimatelyprevent... 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Subsidence in the French construction sector Construction is set to remain one of the worst performing parts of the French economy. The sector’sproblems are symptomatic of the challenges facing the broader economy. 18th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update New Government will keep Slovenian recovery on track Slovenia’s recent election looks set to produce a government that will dilute the country’s muchneededprivatisation programme. Nonetheless, on balance, the new administration will probably... 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
